{ "ticker": { "uuid": "902aed77-eed9-4f34-b8f4-eab9eff0388a", "symbol": "GIL", "name": "Gildan Activewear Inc.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -32.842, "architecture_energy": 18.18, "architecture_maturity": 43.073, "architecture_confidence": 86.759, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.78, "rotation_up": 26.39, "upward_expansion": 15.65, "deceleration": 43.18, "rotation_down": 33.74, "downward_expansion": 63.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.635333, 54.003636, 55.426706, 56.731833 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 57.5, "trend_reference": 59.125999, "distance_from_trend": -0.027501, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 46.046496, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248738, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.728244, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.185666, "excess_performance": -0.311291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027501, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027127, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.097299, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050894, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.185666, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.971645, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7331932, "relative_activity": 1.046116, "balance": 0.971645, "dry_up": 1.142407, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091729, "annualized_volatility": 0.40459, "from_high_reference": -0.212904, "from_low_reference": 0.271356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.125999, "fair_value_reference": 46.046496, "structural_low": 46.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.031371, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.04228, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.218575, "worst_return": -0.130959, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.218757, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.144126, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.279743, "worst_return": -0.241056, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.204805, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.042102, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.489611, "worst_return": -0.151848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.816763, "energy": 68.986916, "activity_lines": [ 52.768, 54.854051, 56.354145, 58.162516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 54.08, "volume": 4899984, "typical_volume": 7037965.8, "trend": 59.97421, "fair_value": 45.562852, "relative_strength": -15.140367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.279286, "energy": 60.116117, "activity_lines": [ 52.828667, 54.477544, 56.028602, 57.76341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.95, "volume": 8866178, "typical_volume": 6865601.75, "trend": 59.53932, "fair_value": 45.695122, "relative_strength": -20.911413, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.77598, "energy": 57.104725, "activity_lines": [ 51.959333, 53.439636, 55.373618, 57.116687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 55.38, "volume": 10929143, "typical_volume": 6911632.25, "trend": 59.305917, "fair_value": 45.86353, "relative_strength": -13.114391, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.089113, "energy": 34.290233, "activity_lines": [ 53.029333, 53.503455, 55.292616, 56.848344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 57.5, "volume": 7331932, "typical_volume": 7008717.25, "trend": 59.125999, "fair_value": 46.046496, "relative_strength": -12.728244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.842308, "energy": 18.179505, "activity_lines": [ 54.635333, 54.003636, 55.426706, 56.731833 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }