{ "ticker": { "uuid": "902dfaa2-1565-4c5b-8929-27f5c2f29162", "symbol": "JPGL", "name": "JPM Global Equity Multi-Factor UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.468, "architecture_energy": 71.202, "architecture_maturity": 74.318, "architecture_confidence": 77.854, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 66.98, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 65.68, "rotation_down": 24.1, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.643334, 45.384637, 44.560238, 43.884151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 45.98, "trend_reference": 43.0015, "distance_from_trend": 0.069265, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 37.008301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.242424, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.839088, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114397, "excess_performance": -0.056495, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.069265, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049022, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.242424, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056421, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038391, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005876, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114397, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.06746, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12899, "relative_activity": 1.592233, "balance": 3.06746, "dry_up": 1.391615, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013334, "annualized_volatility": 0.073829, "from_high_reference": -0.005945, "from_low_reference": 0.241696 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 43.0015, "fair_value_reference": 37.008301, "structural_low": 40.360001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 43, "median_return": 0.010487, "positive_rate": 0.674419, "directional_follow_through": 0.674419, "median_excess_return": -0.001872, "regime_survival": 0.860465, "best_return": 0.064384, "worst_return": -0.07576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.027496, "positive_rate": 0.733333, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": 0.003268, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.11647, "worst_return": -0.083972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.068425, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.005603, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.105845, "worst_return": -0.065312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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91.514786, "activity_lines": [ 45.051668, 44.546182, 43.661786, 43.075495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.360001, "volume": 9892, "typical_volume": 8905.2, "trend": 42.3815, "fair_value": 36.717308, "relative_strength": -1.991309, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.731936, "energy": 90.72079, "activity_lines": [ 45.208668, 44.784364, 43.882857, 43.281161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.834999, "volume": 11818, "typical_volume": 8751.55, "trend": 42.606167, "fair_value": 36.813237, "relative_strength": -0.768174, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.502767, "energy": 85.753803, "activity_lines": [ 45.462, 45.056091, 44.136667, 43.503968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.330002, "volume": 10486, "typical_volume": 8592.25, "trend": 42.811, "fair_value": 36.908878, "relative_strength": -2.461334, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.73452, "energy": 66.937136, "activity_lines": [ 45.448668, 45.178637, 44.325429, 43.679699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 45.98, "volume": 12899, "typical_volume": 8101.2, "trend": 43.0015, "fair_value": 37.008301, "relative_strength": -3.839088, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.468087, "energy": 71.202235, "activity_lines": [ 45.643334, 45.384637, 44.560238, 43.884151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }