{ "ticker": { "uuid": "902eb2b9-d518-44f2-82e3-75e5663db61b", "symbol": "BMS", "name": "Braemar Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 77.84, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 8.459, "architecture_energy": 12.439, "architecture_maturity": 29.954, "architecture_confidence": 72.376, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.25, "rotation_up": 18.98, "upward_expansion": 39.83, "deceleration": 83.62, "rotation_down": 34.19, "downward_expansion": 31.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 225.959353, 228.841127, 229.637205, 228.08788 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 225.0, "trend_reference": 225.52017, "distance_from_trend": -0.002307, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 250.037235, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100134, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.488352, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.086957, "excess_performance": 0.035721, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002307, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100134, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045372, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094884, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.023059, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.086957, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.7513, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 190283, "relative_activity": 1.082244, "balance": 0.7513, "dry_up": 1.179237, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067018, "annualized_volatility": 0.244414, "from_high_reference": -0.134521, "from_low_reference": 0.107763 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 225.52017, "fair_value_reference": 250.037235, "structural_low": 205.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.019838, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.047619, "worst_return": -0.167248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.072864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064939, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111069, "worst_return": -0.248598, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.105719, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.163585, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.118912, "worst_return": -0.202082, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2026-07-10", "close": 232.664, "volume": 110838, "typical_volume": 189831.65, "trend": 225.132387, "fair_value": 250.212479, "relative_strength": -4.650073, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.69286, "energy": 19.146685, "activity_lines": [ 233.693107, 234.650084, 230.645098, 227.967068 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 232.1742, "volume": 186640, "typical_volume": 194383.6, "trend": 225.538193, "fair_value": 250.208834, "relative_strength": -5.524125, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.668618, "energy": 16.565334, "activity_lines": [ 232.753067, 234.309545, 231.02849, 228.421378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 218.4593, "volume": 201790, "typical_volume": 193715.1, "trend": 225.403503, "fair_value": 250.117272, "relative_strength": -11.801241, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.127663, "energy": 9.933276, "activity_lines": [ 227.896447, 231.181313, 230.02392, 227.964676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 228.0, "volume": 250633, "typical_volume": 178744.8, "trend": 225.686837, "fair_value": 250.086869, "relative_strength": -8.556124, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.52449, "energy": 15.364111, "activity_lines": [ 227.256107, 230.179402, 229.956753, 228.132192 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 225.0, "volume": 190283, "typical_volume": 175822.6, "trend": 225.52017, "fair_value": 250.037235, "relative_strength": -9.488352, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.458854, "energy": 12.438838, "activity_lines": [ 225.959353, 228.841127, 229.637205, 228.08788 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }