{ "ticker": { "uuid": "902eb7f0-84c2-43ab-b24b-fddc9e99ae9a", "symbol": "XDQQ", "name": "Innovator Growth Accelerated ETF - Quarterly", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.381, "architecture_energy": 25.644, "architecture_maturity": 32.207, "architecture_confidence": 57.872, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.3, "rotation_up": 16.98, "upward_expansion": 18.22, "deceleration": 69.56, "rotation_down": 61.51, "downward_expansion": 43.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.090113, 39.430295, 39.728959, 39.539419 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 40.327, "trend_reference": 39.426453, "distance_from_trend": 0.022841, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 33.270698, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.212088, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.724522, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.020678, "excess_performance": -0.104947, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.022841, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0048, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.212088, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.020678, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.149662, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11907, "relative_activity": 0.339246, "balance": 1.149662, "dry_up": 2.068563, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022214, "annualized_volatility": 0.15481, "from_high_reference": -0.011351, "from_low_reference": 0.132463 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.426453, "fair_value_reference": 33.270698, "structural_low": 35.61, "invalidation": "A 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"activity_lines": [ 40.2676, 40.3633, 39.958216, 39.714889 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 38.71, "volume": 151252, "typical_volume": 43927.8, "trend": 39.54151, "fair_value": 33.011148, "relative_strength": -8.398614, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.135965, "energy": 20.267943, "activity_lines": [ 39.714267, 40.057815, 39.885458, 39.659297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 38.0059, "volume": 35004, "typical_volume": 35066.5, "trend": 39.4592, "fair_value": 33.089069, "relative_strength": -9.36212, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.858051, "energy": 47.524532, "activity_lines": [ 39.051233, 39.652671, 39.749357, 39.560225 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 38.23, "volume": 92250, "typical_volume": 36865.85, "trend": 39.4203, "fair_value": 33.17224, "relative_strength": -9.624578, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.826432, "energy": 46.796428, "activity_lines": [ 38.638507, 39.330802, 39.639142, 39.480922 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.327, "volume": 11907, "typical_volume": 35098.4, "trend": 39.426453, "fair_value": 33.270698, "relative_strength": -7.724522, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.380781, "energy": 25.644207, "activity_lines": [ 39.090113, 39.430295, 39.728959, 39.539419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }