{ "ticker": { "uuid": "902f2ef9-a5c5-41d7-a7fc-8acd0c992ba5", "symbol": "IRS", "name": "IRSA Inversiones Y Representaciones", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 53.605, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.756, "architecture_energy": 18.462, "architecture_maturity": 15.973, "architecture_confidence": 66.408, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.82, "rotation_up": 8.01, "upward_expansion": 13.17, "deceleration": 66.29, "rotation_down": 52.08, "downward_expansion": 60.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.055333, 15.334545, 15.223286, 15.205054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.94, "trend_reference": 15.358667, "distance_from_trend": -0.027259, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.177444, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.33662, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.434626, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.074349, "excess_performance": -0.199974, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027259, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005042, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.33662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008563, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.084346, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03671, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.074349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789039, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 447025, "relative_activity": 0.555413, "balance": 0.789039, "dry_up": 0.854808, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.086786, "annualized_volatility": 0.417737, "from_high_reference": -0.219436, "from_low_reference": 0.512561 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.358667, "fair_value_reference": 11.177444, "structural_low": 13.265, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.041684, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.014211, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.221393, "worst_return": -0.104516, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.100158, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.047482, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.436403, "worst_return": -0.244231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.142276, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.101041, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.766657, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.107378, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.169533, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.129708, "worst_return": -0.264393, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004636, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.125448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.231565, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.364646, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.037942, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090339, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.025754, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": 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17.458962, "activity_lines": [ 15.806667, 15.599091, 15.251905, 15.316366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.08, "volume": 321056, "typical_volume": 827442.6, "trend": 15.490333, "fair_value": 10.999513, "relative_strength": -4.46669, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -7.358663, "energy": 4.920048, "activity_lines": [ 15.491333, 15.576545, 15.248238, 15.288882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.92, "volume": 967893, "typical_volume": 832418.2, "trend": 15.453333, "fair_value": 11.057032, "relative_strength": -4.723791, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.723722, "energy": 10.565834, "activity_lines": [ 15.23, 15.504182, 15.233429, 15.252086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.19, "volume": 1015998, "typical_volume": 837328.8, "trend": 15.405667, "fair_value": 11.118262, "relative_strength": -3.923908, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.206786, "energy": 8.665324, "activity_lines": [ 15.172, 15.452727, 15.241857, 15.235097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.94, "volume": 447025, "typical_volume": 804851.15, "trend": 15.358667, "fair_value": 11.177444, "relative_strength": -8.434626, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.75556, "energy": 18.461715, "activity_lines": [ 15.055333, 15.334545, 15.223286, 15.205054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }