{ "ticker": { "uuid": "903fbc0d-e719-446f-a01f-2a8b86a09e65", "symbol": "LDRT", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS 1-5 YEAR TREASURY LADDER ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 63.598, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Neutral compression", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.053, "architecture_energy": 33.438, "architecture_maturity": 26.025, "architecture_confidence": 94.481, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.2, "rotation_up": 16.61, "upward_expansion": 5.78, "deceleration": 42.89, "rotation_down": 52.7, "downward_expansion": 81.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.907721, 24.925932, 24.946598, 24.961334 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 24.96, "trend_reference": 24.967937, "distance_from_trend": -0.000318, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.431927, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021614, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.592515, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.001438, "excess_performance": -0.124187, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000318, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001772, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021614, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004465, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105925, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.001438, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559627, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 179753, "relative_activity": 0.465656, "balance": 0.559627, "dry_up": 2.473572, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.007007, "annualized_volatility": 0.022091, "from_high_reference": -0.023419, "from_low_reference": 0.027367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.967937, "fair_value_reference": 24.431927, "structural_low": 24.711641, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.00297, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.021283, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.004363, "worst_return": -0.003881, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"activity_lines": [ 24.888394, 24.922677, 24.946957, 24.961632 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.96, "volume": 179753, "typical_volume": 386021.3, "trend": 24.967937, "fair_value": 24.431927, "relative_strength": -10.592515, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Neutral compression", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.0533, "energy": 33.438293, "activity_lines": [ 24.907721, 24.925932, 24.946598, 24.961334 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }