{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9041a889-4b77-4bc8-b9d0-4d0a6a0d5499", "symbol": "9610", "name": "First Avenue for Real Estate De", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.891, "architecture_energy": 78.484, "architecture_maturity": 21.653, "architecture_confidence": 86.382, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.39, "rotation_up": 8.74, "upward_expansion": 18.5, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 77.5, "downward_expansion": 94.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.244667, 3.549041, 3.973928, 4.077814 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.25, "trend_reference": 4.170195, "distance_from_trend": -0.22066, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.277266, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.384151, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.91169, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.280534, "excess_performance": -0.248705, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.22066, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.027171, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.384151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.226888, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.269117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184227, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.280534, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.251966, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 145349, "relative_activity": 0.395664, "balance": 0.251966, "dry_up": 0.522749, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.158074, "annualized_volatility": 0.483818, "from_high_reference": -0.494367, "from_low_reference": 0.12069 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.170195, "fair_value_reference": 5.277266, "structural_low": 2.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002994, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058558, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.142429, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069079, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-10-18", "close": 5.862068, "volume": 3247102, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-10-25", "close": 5.724137, "volume": 1253785, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-01", "close": 5.786206, "volume": 485289, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, 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"Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.794669, "energy": 60.045816, "activity_lines": [ 3.722667, 4.079003, 4.285305, 4.282982 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.25, "volume": 270001, "typical_volume": 370940.35, "trend": 4.242368, "fair_value": 5.323122, "relative_strength": -28.322276, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.319555, "energy": 79.952757, "activity_lines": [ 3.506667, 3.89047, 4.184778, 4.217048 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.04, "volume": 169690, "typical_volume": 361211.9, "trend": 4.20577, "fair_value": 5.298833, "relative_strength": -30.774745, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.324678, "energy": 84.148178, "activity_lines": [ 3.304, 3.686545, 4.066739, 4.139476 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.25, "volume": 145349, "typical_volume": 367354.55, "trend": 4.170195, "fair_value": 5.277266, "relative_strength": -26.91169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.891365, "energy": 78.484252, "activity_lines": [ 3.244667, 3.549041, 3.973928, 4.077814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }