{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90452a4b-9fc5-41d1-a9d1-6d00fd415aee", "symbol": "601288", "name": "Agricultural Bank of China Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.587, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.132, "architecture_energy": 15.906, "architecture_maturity": 27.758, "architecture_confidence": 63.313, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.99, "rotation_up": 52.57, "upward_expansion": 26.29, "deceleration": 40.74, "rotation_down": 15.32, "downward_expansion": 26.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.596, 6.464, 6.487647, 6.513223 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.47, "trend_reference": 6.569462, "distance_from_trend": -0.01514, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.077712, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.274196, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.865742, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.018381, "excess_performance": 0.024823, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01514, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.274196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.140097, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.048657, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014089, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.063846, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2609126438, "relative_activity": 1.780024, "balance": 1.063846, "dry_up": 1.67861, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052431, "annualized_volatility": 0.279616, "from_high_reference": -0.228088, "from_low_reference": 0.117444 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.569462, "fair_value_reference": 5.077712, "structural_low": 5.79, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.022209, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.037135, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.036913, "worst_return": -0.060242, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.040404, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.01853, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.041958, "worst_return": -0.043988, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.159325, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183082, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.286713, "worst_return": 0.031936, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.053661, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.126888, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.053661, "worst_return": 0.053661, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019126, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.265986, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063877, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.049433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005882, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.255681, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.169839, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030151, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109934, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004498, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045317, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066152, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.04717, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062319, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 3.166687, "volume": 1282006314, "typical_volume": 1953955766.15, "trend": 2.70058, "fair_value": 2.390261, "relative_strength": 21.629282, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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[ 6.190667, 6.306867, 6.455564, 6.521696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.39, "volume": 2161190220, "typical_volume": 1388849732.65, "trend": 6.645262, "fair_value": 5.006121, "relative_strength": -1.529229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.312264, "energy": 61.164427, "activity_lines": [ 6.221333, 6.303818, 6.444206, 6.502938 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.66, "volume": 2225296458, "typical_volume": 1369508167.2, "trend": 6.62042, "fair_value": 5.030235, "relative_strength": 1.232156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.091065, "energy": 22.618185, "activity_lines": [ 6.369333, 6.356727, 6.458026, 6.503888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9, "volume": 2846288851, "typical_volume": 1437659540.75, "trend": 6.604887, "fair_value": 5.055412, "relative_strength": 4.223242, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.905973, "energy": 14.146924, "activity_lines": [ 6.578, 6.453455, 6.494281, 6.521926 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.47, "volume": 2609126438, "typical_volume": 1465781853.6, "trend": 6.569462, "fair_value": 5.077712, "relative_strength": -4.865742, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.132197, "energy": 15.906382, "activity_lines": [ 6.596, 6.464, 6.487647, 6.513223 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }