{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9046c83e-8c9b-409b-b979-6873007874b5", "symbol": "ALTHE", "name": "Theraclion SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 58.773, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.625, "architecture_energy": 18.537, "architecture_maturity": 36.924, "architecture_confidence": 76.063, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.81, "rotation_up": 25.16, "upward_expansion": 55.74, "deceleration": 85.03, "rotation_down": 36.51, "downward_expansion": 21.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.6102, 0.635127, 0.621225, 0.600555 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.604, "trend_reference": 0.591369, "distance_from_trend": 0.021359, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.457246, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.320952, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.661251, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.05625, "excess_performance": -0.109561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.021359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017784, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.320952, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096613, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133071, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.05625, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.214127, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 183316, "relative_activity": 0.396206, "balance": 1.214127, "dry_up": 0.4417, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150662, "annualized_volatility": 0.78147, "from_high_reference": -0.5168, "from_low_reference": 0.502488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.591369, "fair_value_reference": 0.457246, "structural_low": 0.402, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.043887, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046577, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.118812, "worst_return": -0.058997, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.023102, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.033469, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.023102, "worst_return": -0.023102, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.194617, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.225315, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.194617, "worst_return": -0.194617, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.204444, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.268817, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.553846, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006601, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.180328, "active": false }, { "regime": 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.536598, "energy": 24.967593, "activity_lines": [ 0.667533, 0.672818, 0.616912, 0.600654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.593, "volume": 325665, "typical_volume": 458361.4, "trend": 0.592635, "fair_value": 0.457951, "relative_strength": -7.876996, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.160477, "energy": 17.668167, "activity_lines": [ 0.642267, 0.662473, 0.618673, 0.600697 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.578, "volume": 194827, "typical_volume": 456091.6, "trend": 0.591569, "fair_value": 0.457605, "relative_strength": -11.611416, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.986521, "energy": 14.984647, "activity_lines": [ 0.619133, 0.647273, 0.618897, 0.599753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.604, "volume": 183316, "typical_volume": 462678.25, "trend": 0.591369, "fair_value": 0.457246, "relative_strength": -9.661251, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.624635, "energy": 18.53669, "activity_lines": [ 0.6102, 0.635127, 0.621225, 0.600555 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }