{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90489377-541b-4627-b746-608211fe1765", "symbol": "MUFG", "name": "Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.964, "architecture_energy": 73.437, "architecture_maturity": 35.938, "architecture_confidence": 84.164, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 1.38, "rotation_up": 77.22, "upward_expansion": 93.32, "deceleration": 45.14, "rotation_down": 13.22, "downward_expansion": 15.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.347333, 21.752182, 20.636714, 19.876903 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 22.49, "trend_reference": 19.153, "distance_from_trend": 0.174229, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.820686, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.754196, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.192659, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.175026, "excess_performance": 0.049401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.174229, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.103495, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.754196, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.214002, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.141927, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132798, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.175026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.990012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16018283, "relative_activity": 1.019635, "balance": 1.990012, "dry_up": 1.130579, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052605, "annualized_volatility": 0.296388, "from_high_reference": -0.032688, "from_low_reference": 0.575087 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.153, "fair_value_reference": 12.820686, "structural_low": 16.255, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": 0.035103, "positive_rate": 0.658537, "directional_follow_through": 0.658537, "median_excess_return": 0.014542, "regime_survival": 0.756098, "best_return": 0.135417, "worst_return": -0.133749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.046606, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.003844, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.252525, "worst_return": -0.095238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.160126, "positive_rate": 0.888889, "directional_follow_through": 0.888889, "median_excess_return": 0.086657, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.269842, "worst_return": -0.268562, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 12.820686, "relative_strength": 14.192659, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.963751, "energy": 73.436873, "activity_lines": [ 22.347333, 21.752182, 20.636714, 19.876903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }