{ "ticker": { "uuid": "904b436c-d434-45f9-ad42-e42609248f20", "symbol": "002807", "name": "Jiangsu Jiangyin Rural Commercial Bank Co.,LTD.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 72.417, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.065, "architecture_energy": 13.576, "architecture_maturity": 17.547, "architecture_confidence": 71.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.77, "rotation_up": 46.68, "upward_expansion": 27.92, "deceleration": 42.36, "rotation_down": 19.91, "downward_expansion": 24.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.0, 3.954182, 3.954453, 3.970822 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.98, "trend_reference": 3.989572, "distance_from_trend": -0.002399, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.530915, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.127187, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.085538, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.012315, "excess_performance": -0.019715, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002399, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018133, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.127187, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019881, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050855, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.16431, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.012315, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.962433, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 213842845, "relative_activity": 1.413291, "balance": 0.962433, "dry_up": 1.531369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039556, "annualized_volatility": 0.169242, "from_high_reference": -0.145165, "from_low_reference": 0.061333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.989572, "fair_value_reference": 3.530915, "structural_low": 3.75, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.018913, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00448, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.094203, "worst_return": -0.057203, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.016881, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.042252, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.17389, "worst_return": -0.05305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.063008, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.214369, "worst_return": -0.091758, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.085462, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.067019, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206043, "worst_return": -0.052009, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088889, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.012722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045093, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.030374, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139759, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.084233, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062748, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", 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"trend": 3.997628, "fair_value": 3.50986, "relative_strength": -3.491619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.087528, "energy": 49.439886, "activity_lines": [ 3.878, 3.903246, 3.940949, 3.966204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.92, "volume": 228696222, "typical_volume": 150635685.25, "trend": 3.989565, "fair_value": 3.516376, "relative_strength": -3.817902, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.358593, "energy": 27.959621, "activity_lines": [ 3.894667, 3.904134, 3.936003, 3.961196 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.15, "volume": 248113705, "typical_volume": 152068149.6, "trend": 3.991226, "fair_value": 3.524266, "relative_strength": 3.699209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.740311, "energy": 10.698655, "activity_lines": [ 3.988, 3.946909, 3.9534, 3.971546 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.98, "volume": 213842845, "typical_volume": 151308462.4, "trend": 3.989572, "fair_value": 3.530915, "relative_strength": -5.085538, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.06461, "energy": 13.575688, "activity_lines": [ 4.0, 3.954182, 3.954453, 3.970822 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }