{ "ticker": { "uuid": "904bacb9-11ec-4c88-8997-4fc4bd21dee2", "symbol": "XMES", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Mexico UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 60.551, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.955, "architecture_energy": 30.973, "architecture_maturity": 15.901, "architecture_confidence": 77.154, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.89, "rotation_up": 47.46, "upward_expansion": 67.46, "deceleration": 51.45, "rotation_down": 21.72, "downward_expansion": 17.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.232167, 9.185295, 9.194268, 9.159702 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.34375, "trend_reference": 9.126833, "distance_from_trend": 0.023767, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 7.084526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.318896, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.284835, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.006327, "excess_performance": -0.044908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023767, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042952, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.318896, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067572, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.012848, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.006327, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.561929, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 98214, "relative_activity": 0.254085, "balance": 3.561929, "dry_up": 0.434341, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027199, "annualized_volatility": 0.225655, "from_high_reference": -0.032237, "from_low_reference": 0.347818 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.126833, "fair_value_reference": 7.084526, "structural_low": 8.0108, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.020335, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.027203, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.140214, "worst_return": -0.110137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.005775, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.001467, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.199654, "worst_return": -0.166578, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.061722, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.03998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.331312, "worst_return": -0.206189, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050973, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03183, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044129, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.045473, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011572, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056518, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.310745, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131933, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001347, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.023272, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.47125, "volume": 9662, "typical_volume": 19137.7, "trend": 6.3725, "fair_value": 5.134263, "relative_strength": 14.137496, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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"volume": 98214, "typical_volume": 386540.05, "trend": 9.126833, "fair_value": 7.084526, "relative_strength": 1.284835, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.954971, "energy": 30.972524, "activity_lines": [ 9.232167, 9.185295, 9.194268, 9.159702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }