{ "ticker": { "uuid": "905dd15d-8aa5-41ad-bd22-2f3fe2800c8a", "symbol": "RPAR", "name": "TIDAL ETF TRUST RPAR RISK PARITY ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.499, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.201, "architecture_energy": 47.845, "architecture_maturity": 8.739, "architecture_confidence": 91.513, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.8, "rotation_up": 14.53, "upward_expansion": 8.67, "deceleration": 42.25, "rotation_down": 62.01, "downward_expansion": 84.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.957013, 22.043521, 22.225679, 22.32899 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 22.25, "trend_reference": 22.457565, "distance_from_trend": -0.009243, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.559985, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.137526, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.440113, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.020683, "excess_performance": -0.146308, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009243, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009968, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.137526, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048614, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094401, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049712, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020683, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.58654, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 212502, "relative_activity": 1.846872, "balance": 0.58654, "dry_up": 0.93591, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022294, "annualized_volatility": 0.115571, "from_high_reference": -0.060158, "from_low_reference": 0.131815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.457565, "fair_value_reference": 19.559985, "structural_low": 21.6574, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.000479, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.001863, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.071946, "worst_return": -0.103266, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014199, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.022044, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.049762, "worst_return": -0.111319, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003012, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.056731, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.062778, "worst_return": -0.123937, "sufficient": 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37.483233, "activity_lines": [ 22.203618, 22.302059, 22.402489, 22.464573 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.8772, "volume": 61152, "typical_volume": 115455.35, "trend": 22.44176, "fair_value": 19.478263, "relative_strength": -7.802932, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.346949, "energy": 60.670892, "activity_lines": [ 22.06781, 22.211201, 22.345141, 22.429155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.813, "volume": 95083, "typical_volume": 115691.85, "trend": 22.444754, "fair_value": 19.50246, "relative_strength": -7.422329, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.777266, "energy": 63.953165, "activity_lines": [ 21.948928, 22.12479, 22.290236, 22.38859 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.7192, "volume": 62008, "typical_volume": 109412.1, "trend": 22.448242, "fair_value": 19.528744, "relative_strength": -8.654224, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.583867, "energy": 69.178865, "activity_lines": [ 21.847313, 22.030001, 22.231024, 22.34178 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.25, "volume": 212502, "typical_volume": 115060.5, "trend": 22.457565, "fair_value": 19.559985, "relative_strength": -9.440113, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.201195, "energy": 47.844635, "activity_lines": [ 21.957013, 22.043521, 22.225679, 22.32899 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }