{ "ticker": { "uuid": "905de92e-b727-4af9-802b-12890f1ebbf2", "symbol": "CUMMINSIND", "name": "Cummins India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.28, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 33.906, "architecture_energy": 18.758, "architecture_maturity": 58.763, "architecture_confidence": 90.082, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.76, "rotation_up": 25.65, "upward_expansion": 54.49, "deceleration": 90.91, "rotation_down": 26.46, "downward_expansion": 18.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 5498.583822, 5531.897585, 5512.285361, 5352.35972 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5426.0, "trend_reference": 5078.844238, "distance_from_trend": 0.068353, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3490.105955, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.554681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.118918, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.24775, "excess_performance": 0.29146, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.086721, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.554681, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.147741, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.161189, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18855, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.24775, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.619477, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3391177, "relative_activity": 1.519071, "balance": 0.619477, "dry_up": 1.046058, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057122, "annualized_volatility": 0.26169, "from_high_reference": -0.110492, "from_low_reference": 0.461502 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5078.844238, "fair_value_reference": 3490.105955, "structural_low": 4308.806846, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.031076, "positive_rate": 0.764706, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": 0.022806, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.124169, "worst_return": -0.037749, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.108505, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.099242, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.271363, "worst_return": -0.016083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.279273, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.227359, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.807393, "worst_return": -0.226966, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.335121, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.397986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.994183, "worst_return": 0.041066, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-18", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.021635, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-11-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02301, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-01", "end": "2023-12-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-22", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.765278, "active": false }, { "regime": 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2338135.25, "trend": 4999.340137, "fair_value": 3441.878968, "relative_strength": 25.773328, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.288952, "energy": 25.681085, "activity_lines": [ 5532.115788, 5583.544709, 5485.246749, 5293.580358 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5519.0, "volume": 2025443, "typical_volume": 2256290.45, "trend": 5034.579753, "fair_value": 3466.112141, "relative_strength": 19.806103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.796445, "energy": 24.804788, "activity_lines": [ 5528.296842, 5567.684783, 5505.264388, 5327.106801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5426.0, "volume": 3391177, "typical_volume": 2232402.3, "trend": 5078.844238, "fair_value": 3490.105955, "relative_strength": 16.118918, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.905642, "energy": 18.758034, "activity_lines": [ 5498.583822, 5531.897585, 5512.285361, 5352.35972 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }