{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90672735-564c-43a0-870f-861a382d1092", "symbol": "CALC", "name": "CalciMedica, Inc. Common Stock", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -31.999, "architecture_energy": 20.725, "architecture_maturity": 50.973, "architecture_confidence": 72.912, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.86, "rotation_up": 19.56, "upward_expansion": 19.84, "deceleration": 69.88, "rotation_down": 45.06, "downward_expansion": 55.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.807893, 0.833349, 0.797855, 0.787234 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.6875, "trend_reference": 1.01979, "distance_from_trend": -0.325842, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.017638, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.772173, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -73.378452, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.145642, "excess_performance": -0.041811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.325842, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.559721, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.772173, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.733785, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059322, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.145642, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 9.771777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2104749, "relative_activity": 0.478131, "balance": 9.771777, "dry_up": 0.375452, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.362148, "annualized_volatility": 1.287513, "from_high_reference": -0.904514, "from_low_reference": 0.492618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.01979, "fair_value_reference": 3.017638, "structural_low": 0.4606, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.023622, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.056269, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.947552, "worst_return": -0.463053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.139117, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.113661, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.454545, "worst_return": -0.460377, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.291562, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.234658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.384615, "worst_return": -0.577358, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.370238, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.62419, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.003497, "worst_return": -0.736979, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.128571, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.220561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.337736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.423631, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033223, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028777, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019481, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012987, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.423333, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203661, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.426333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.122283, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.212865, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.3125, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.1937, "volume": 56221, "typical_volume": 83762.45, "trend": 5.051647, "fair_value": 73.140961, "relative_strength": -66.549645, "stage": 4, "regime": 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"relative_strength": -72.365035, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.171524, "energy": 22.228315, "activity_lines": [ 0.845427, 0.847887, 0.773661, 0.896474 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.7599, "volume": 1278317, "typical_volume": 4414595.6, "trend": 1.383207, "fair_value": 3.047969, "relative_strength": -70.145637, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.086898, "energy": 20.525114, "activity_lines": [ 0.818573, 0.836373, 0.776776, 0.844497 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.0, "volume": 1476063, "typical_volume": 4386981.2, "trend": 1.191873, "fair_value": 3.034181, "relative_strength": -60.128988, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.868316, "energy": 8.141983, "activity_lines": [ 0.871453, 0.866644, 0.802601, 0.819774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.6875, "volume": 2104749, "typical_volume": 4402038.55, "trend": 1.01979, "fair_value": 3.017638, "relative_strength": -73.378452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.999288, "energy": 20.724563, "activity_lines": [ 0.807893, 0.833349, 0.797855, 0.787234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }