{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9073239c-5784-47d1-b81a-09f032a81b75", "symbol": "BAJAJHLDNG", "name": "Bajaj Holdings & Investment Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 67.138, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.018, "architecture_energy": 57.879, "architecture_maturity": 16.553, "architecture_confidence": 78.227, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.39, "rotation_up": 64.35, "upward_expansion": 84.32, "deceleration": 48.68, "rotation_down": 13.73, "downward_expansion": 10.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 11011.6, 10834.798739, 10583.364472, 10452.294485 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11263.0, "trend_reference": 10410.271322, "distance_from_trend": 0.081912, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10260.933863, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.097658, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.597523, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024002, "excess_performance": 0.067711, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081912, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026062, "read": "Falling" 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8588.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.057162, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.042135, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.229614, "worst_return": 0.025754, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.151186, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.095654, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.215213, "worst_return": 0.087158, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072054, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.03468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110818, "worst_return": 0.033289, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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10258.063035, 10307.900288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10654.0, "volume": 209092, "typical_volume": 196561.0, "trend": 10438.404655, "fair_value": 10164.979595, "relative_strength": -4.199082, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.616631, "energy": 41.855739, "activity_lines": [ 10674.729753, 10495.885476, 10301.581417, 10321.280633 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10398.0, "volume": 283644, "typical_volume": 185335.25, "trend": 10413.404655, "fair_value": 10185.526589, "relative_strength": -6.50292, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.437157, "energy": 38.145565, "activity_lines": [ 10621.785677, 10493.173633, 10323.261705, 10318.673881 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10679.0, "volume": 400892, "typical_volume": 197554.95, "trend": 10397.537988, "fair_value": 10207.126975, "relative_strength": -1.246999, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.83898, "energy": 36.609259, "activity_lines": [ 10638.394271, 10543.434677, 10373.63723, 10335.809064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11343.0, "volume": 255872, "typical_volume": 194204.8, "trend": 10402.937988, "fair_value": 10233.8675, "relative_strength": 2.658213, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.581323, "energy": 42.29095, "activity_lines": [ 10867.466667, 10705.377273, 10486.684184, 10396.806613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11263.0, "volume": 183767, "typical_volume": 192043.45, "trend": 10410.271322, "fair_value": 10260.933863, "relative_strength": 1.597523, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.017512, "energy": 57.878651, "activity_lines": [ 11011.6, 10834.798739, 10583.364472, 10452.294485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }