{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9073e834-0339-43d4-848e-85dcbf17da3c", "symbol": "QYLD", "name": "Global X NASDAQ 100 Covered Call UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 56.683, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.428, "architecture_energy": 21.407, "architecture_maturity": 57.433, "architecture_confidence": 83.71, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.62, "rotation_up": 28.7, "upward_expansion": 57.56, "deceleration": 85.43, "rotation_down": 38.42, "downward_expansion": 21.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.535199, 16.624369, 16.621531, 16.494201 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.733999, "trend_reference": 16.341179, "distance_from_trend": 0.024039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.203911, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.178126, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.725833, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.049768, "excess_performance": -0.001467, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.178126, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023524, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.027258, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050909, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.049768, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.867898, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 193429, "relative_activity": 0.891326, "balance": 2.867898, "dry_up": 1.030399, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027192, "annualized_volatility": 0.099894, "from_high_reference": -0.023801, "from_low_reference": 0.178321 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.341179, "fair_value_reference": 14.203911, "structural_low": 15.290875, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.003113, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.010014, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.046462, "worst_return": -0.075171, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.014621, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00147, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.037495, "worst_return": -0.008253, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.019615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.04125, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.019615, "worst_return": 0.019615, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027359, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005153, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.109333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.02411, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01066, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.676338, "energy": 60.039432, "activity_lines": [ 16.796476, 16.711995, 16.451386, 16.323728 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 16.588438, "volume": 67482, "typical_volume": 224650.0, "trend": 16.189904, "fair_value": 14.020734, "relative_strength": -0.299396, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.181411, "energy": 41.733531, "activity_lines": [ 16.730258, 16.708383, 16.481708, 16.351452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.898233, "volume": 19304, "typical_volume": 209978.95, "trend": 16.229232, "fair_value": 14.053367, "relative_strength": -0.00351, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.527621, "energy": 47.631907, "activity_lines": [ 16.776822, 16.753314, 16.538451, 16.397151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 384072, "typical_volume": 218299.3, "trend": 16.273397, "fair_value": 14.08579, "relative_strength": 2.61957, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.893084, "energy": 56.749433, "activity_lines": [ 16.874656, 16.816025, 16.604921, 16.450104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.4, "volume": 192798, "typical_volume": 220897.3, "trend": 16.292722, "fair_value": 14.116546, "relative_strength": -2.186364, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.452363, "energy": 26.199619, "activity_lines": [ 16.730462, 16.749728, 16.60486, 16.458272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.483999, "volume": 248752, "typical_volume": 217237.65, "trend": 16.310596, "fair_value": 14.145104, "relative_strength": -2.875575, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.213728, "energy": 21.822428, "activity_lines": [ 16.636993, 16.701916, 16.611278, 16.470612 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.264, "volume": 259459, "typical_volume": 221480.35, "trend": 16.321771, "fair_value": 14.172422, "relative_strength": -5.239318, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.185231, "energy": 13.416866, "activity_lines": [ 16.496948, 16.616168, 16.594758, 16.467606 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.733999, "volume": 193429, "typical_volume": 217012.55, "trend": 16.341179, "fair_value": 14.203911, "relative_strength": -2.725833, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.427622, "energy": 21.407135, "activity_lines": [ 16.535199, 16.624369, 16.621531, 16.494201 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }