{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9080df1d-2319-413b-a9f6-05641a9a38c6", "symbol": "VHLTD", "name": "Viceroy Hotels Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 71.474, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.687, "architecture_energy": 38.305, "architecture_maturity": 19.546, "architecture_confidence": 82.058, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.56, "rotation_up": 18.3, "upward_expansion": 3.71, "deceleration": 51.2, "rotation_down": 55.4, "downward_expansion": 77.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 129.782669, 131.085457, 133.75724, 135.612217 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 125.0, "trend_reference": 137.507334, "distance_from_trend": -0.090958, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 164.957617, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.24223, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.059242, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084383, "excess_performance": -0.040674, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090958, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002774, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.24223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032992, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050592, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194305, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084383, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.981543, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 152515, "relative_activity": 2.49142, "balance": 1.981543, "dry_up": 1.480807, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068542, "annualized_volatility": 0.263782, "from_high_reference": -0.195417, "from_low_reference": 0.22549 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.507334, "fair_value_reference": 164.957617, "structural_low": 120.099998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.026561, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.026349, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041502, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.028329, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.283604, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.027778, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.030436, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.378378, "worst_return": -0.485714, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041522, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.136726, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007966, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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"2026-07-10", "close": 128.529999, "volume": 109102, "typical_volume": 59856.2, "trend": 138.846001, "fair_value": 167.70454, "relative_strength": 0.708079, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.794262, "energy": 59.056425, "activity_lines": [ 131.772668, 134.370184, 136.443192, 137.70656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 130.360001, "volume": 28445, "typical_volume": 58401.85, "trend": 138.759334, "fair_value": 167.00172, "relative_strength": 1.218801, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.171425, "energy": 63.034769, "activity_lines": [ 130.725335, 133.414911, 135.664144, 137.159076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 131.990005, "volume": 59975, "typical_volume": 53450.45, "trend": 138.279668, "fair_value": 166.373451, "relative_strength": 4.429101, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.194578, "energy": 55.617341, "activity_lines": [ 130.673336, 132.90273, 135.119573, 136.722346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 134.130005, "volume": 121662, "typical_volume": 57736.15, "trend": 138.057334, "fair_value": 165.726848, "relative_strength": 2.981448, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.915144, "energy": 35.96777, "activity_lines": [ 131.940003, 132.795821, 134.86024, 136.454625 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.0, "volume": 152515, "typical_volume": 61216.1, "trend": 137.507334, "fair_value": 164.957617, "relative_strength": -5.059242, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.687158, "energy": 38.304679, "activity_lines": [ 129.782669, 131.085457, 133.75724, 135.612217 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }