{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9082f807-d8dd-4f53-a7b6-8c7f4f86b994", "symbol": "TSL", "name": "Tree Island Steel Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.797, "architecture_energy": 48.911, "architecture_maturity": 51.842, "architecture_confidence": 86.007, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.85, "rotation_up": 16.39, "upward_expansion": 6.51, "deceleration": 54.15, "rotation_down": 64.91, "downward_expansion": 82.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.194, 2.237818, 2.311905, 2.383247 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.22, "trend_reference": 2.474333, "distance_from_trend": -0.102789, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.725559, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.185488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.619239, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.162264, "excess_performance": -0.282685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.102789, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068729, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.185488, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090945, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236192, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092438, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.162264, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.563084, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 26900, "relative_activity": 1.761624, "balance": 0.563084, "dry_up": 2.007204, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.071379, "annualized_volatility": 0.172753, "from_high_reference": -0.282329, "from_low_reference": 222.205309 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.474333, "fair_value_reference": 2.725559, "structural_low": 2.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.013221, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.021517, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.203698, "worst_return": -0.076087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00442, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052779, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.191247, "worst_return": -0.130694, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.035557, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.105691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085122, "worst_return": -0.079298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.488464, "energy": 53.865631, "activity_lines": [ 2.274667, 2.304, 2.381095, 2.446611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.21, "volume": 44900, "typical_volume": 14640.0, "trend": 2.514333, "fair_value": 2.734472, "relative_strength": -22.89707, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.411998, "energy": 52.982893, "activity_lines": [ 2.242667, 2.280909, 2.358095, 2.425462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.13, "volume": 23200, "typical_volume": 14625.0, "trend": 2.49, "fair_value": 2.729697, "relative_strength": -24.832977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.710603, "energy": 61.63899, "activity_lines": [ 2.194667, 2.248727, 2.329381, 2.400667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.22, "volume": 26900, "typical_volume": 15270.0, "trend": 2.474333, "fair_value": 2.725559, "relative_strength": -23.619239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.796886, "energy": 48.910721, "activity_lines": [ 2.194, 2.237818, 2.311905, 2.383247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }