{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90891e92-36ab-49d9-8c40-8d9ec7f5d1d5", "symbol": "IBDU", "name": "ISHARES TRUST IBONDS DEC 2029 TERM CORPORATE ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.949, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -35.008, "architecture_energy": 18.956, "architecture_maturity": 18.099, "architecture_confidence": 92.141, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.2, "rotation_up": 20.19, "upward_expansion": 4.39, "deceleration": 44.21, "rotation_down": 43.82, "downward_expansion": 75.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.000365, 23.0068, 23.011441, 23.018483 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 23.06, "trend_reference": 23.031627, "distance_from_trend": 0.001232, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.605514, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.06732, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.45741, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.00158, "excess_performance": -0.127205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001232, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001869, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.06732, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012962, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104574, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004361, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.00158, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910682, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2993253, "relative_activity": 0.912474, "balance": 0.910682, "dry_up": 0.812908, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.005465, "annualized_volatility": 0.024523, "from_high_reference": -0.007505, "from_low_reference": 0.028333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.031627, "fair_value_reference": 21.605514, "structural_low": 22.836991, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.002209, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.000307, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.017049, "worst_return": -0.038834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.007481, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014616, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.049824, "worst_return": -0.075293, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.04461, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005367, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.066277, "worst_return": -0.123889, "sufficient": true 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23.041181, 23.022595, 23.023887, 23.030529 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 22.97254, "volume": 3890796, "typical_volume": 3559255.65, "trend": 23.027133, "fair_value": 21.517657, "relative_strength": -9.718389, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.036576, "energy": 5.223786, "activity_lines": [ 23.022226, 23.015657, 23.018043, 23.027272 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.002426, "volume": 2429522, "typical_volume": 3543686.25, "trend": 23.029832, "fair_value": 21.539432, "relative_strength": -7.923743, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.10534, "energy": 15.191529, "activity_lines": [ 23.012658, 23.014758, 23.016011, 23.025678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.932691, "volume": 2706183, "typical_volume": 3479444.55, "trend": 23.028245, "fair_value": 21.560759, "relative_strength": -7.429054, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.871971, "energy": 32.362, "activity_lines": [ 22.982592, 23.001605, 23.008348, 23.019411 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.982502, "volume": 2537600, "typical_volume": 3368216.1, "trend": 23.028644, "fair_value": 21.582382, "relative_strength": -7.931107, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.151263, "energy": 34.695451, "activity_lines": [ 22.974532, 22.997396, 23.006291, 23.01646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.06, "volume": 2993253, "typical_volume": 3280369.2, "trend": 23.031627, "fair_value": 21.605514, "relative_strength": -10.45741, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.0084, "energy": 18.95626, "activity_lines": [ 23.000365, 23.0068, 23.011441, 23.018483 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }