{ "ticker": { "uuid": "908b13b7-2deb-438c-9d50-0daa74173087", "symbol": "FOSL", "name": "Fossil Group Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.128, "architecture_energy": 51.154, "architecture_maturity": 41.4, "architecture_confidence": 86.046, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.76, "rotation_up": 59.82, "upward_expansion": 77.62, "deceleration": 53.69, "rotation_down": 20.94, "downward_expansion": 18.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.750667, 4.522, 4.442667, 4.423011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.38, "trend_reference": 4.33, "distance_from_trend": 0.242494, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.170048, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.479208, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 26.574909, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.577713, "excess_performance": 0.390259, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.242494, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099962, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.479208, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.277667, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.265749, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036739, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.577713, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.465542, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7070921, "relative_activity": 1.731379, "balance": 1.465542, "dry_up": 1.135575, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115959, "annualized_volatility": 0.758405, "from_high_reference": -0.126581, "from_low_reference": 2.230261 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.33, "fair_value_reference": 2.170048, "structural_low": 3.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005653, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.009143, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.294521, "worst_return": -0.107887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.024393, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.12096, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.10274, "worst_return": -0.227766, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.176887, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.06727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.575342, "worst_return": -0.501085, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.565574, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.388235, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504505, "worst_return": -0.722343, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.115538, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.774775, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160804, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.274286, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.63554, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017647, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.264516, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", 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"close": 4.05, "volume": 2985728, "typical_volume": 4117752.0, "trend": 4.240667, "fair_value": 2.133958, "relative_strength": 3.684696, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.40897, "energy": 24.650663, "activity_lines": [ 4.134667, 4.188727, 4.295619, 4.306172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.95, "volume": 5300822, "typical_volume": 3922705.65, "trend": 4.278333, "fair_value": 2.149215, "relative_strength": 24.227976, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.804333, "energy": 15.912667, "activity_lines": [ 4.390667, 4.323455, 4.349095, 4.351935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.38, "volume": 7070921, "typical_volume": 4083982.8, "trend": 4.33, "fair_value": 2.170048, "relative_strength": 26.574909, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.128098, "energy": 51.153531, "activity_lines": [ 4.750667, 4.522, 4.442667, 4.423011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }