{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9096c4c2-3029-4242-a871-2fe85b793f1b", "symbol": "UDIV", "name": "Manulife Smart U.S. Dividend ETF Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.379, "architecture_energy": 66.917, "architecture_maturity": 92.926, "architecture_confidence": 70.8, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.76, "rotation_up": 52.59, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.29, "rotation_down": 29.61, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.839333, 16.793503, 16.573418, 16.204537 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.139999, "trend_reference": 15.744108, "distance_from_trend": 0.088661, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.132546, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305154, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.699734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.131606, "excess_performance": 0.011185, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088661, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305154, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040862, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016997, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008841, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131606, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.117967, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32600, "relative_activity": 1.993274, "balance": 2.117967, "dry_up": 1.290125, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01642, "annualized_volatility": 0.112872, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.28127 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.744108, "fair_value_reference": 13.132546, "structural_low": 14.191242, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.017022, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.009083, "regime_survival": 0.892857, "best_return": 0.048097, "worst_return": -0.078275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.035504, "positive_rate": 0.7, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.027172, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.089748, "worst_return": -0.131608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055377, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.025012, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.156885, "worst_return": -0.011357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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16.74, "volume": 14600, "typical_volume": 15710.0, "trend": 15.576465, "fair_value": 13.05923, "relative_strength": 2.056125, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.06817, "energy": 57.173654, "activity_lines": [ 16.718584, 16.734001, 16.405155, 16.040293 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.639999, "volume": 18000, "typical_volume": 16075.0, "trend": 15.657758, "fair_value": 13.094345, "relative_strength": 1.918889, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.149667, "energy": 54.417544, "activity_lines": [ 16.695333, 16.720074, 16.470336, 16.108908 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.139999, "volume": 32600, "typical_volume": 16355.0, "trend": 15.744108, "fair_value": 13.132546, "relative_strength": 1.699734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.378587, "energy": 66.916555, "activity_lines": [ 16.839333, 16.793503, 16.573418, 16.204537 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }