{ "ticker": { "uuid": "909e21c9-3ebe-4bd4-acbf-44f3af416410", "symbol": "002910", "name": "Lanzhou Zhuangyuan Pasture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.969, "architecture_energy": 72.116, "architecture_maturity": 16.288, "architecture_confidence": 83.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.3, "rotation_up": 8.58, "upward_expansion": 15.97, "deceleration": 37.15, "rotation_down": 73.45, "downward_expansion": 89.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.804, 9.576364, 10.069714, 10.412194 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9.21, "trend_reference": 10.881333, "distance_from_trend": -0.153596, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.375769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.017681, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.294491, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.241351, "excess_performance": -0.248751, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.153596, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.017681, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230127, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172945, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057326, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.241351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584968, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43572085, "relative_activity": 1.041123, "balance": 0.584968, "dry_up": 1.650681, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.150004, "annualized_volatility": 0.511263, "from_high_reference": -0.424735, "from_low_reference": 0.226365 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.881333, "fair_value_reference": 9.375769, "structural_low": 7.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.001623, "positive_rate": 0.47619, "directional_follow_through": 0.52381, "median_excess_return": 0.028961, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.366236, "worst_return": -0.204637, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.02333, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.048091, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.256536, "worst_return": -0.235887, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.102436, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.069272, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.189542, "worst_return": -0.383065, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.544271, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.117786, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.102616, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-08", 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-11.335725, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.578707, "energy": 18.510799, "activity_lines": [ 11.289333, 10.946, 10.920524, 11.107376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.64, "volume": 158808173, "typical_volume": 33661520.2, "trend": 11.289, "fair_value": 9.443728, "relative_strength": -11.55921, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.614008, "energy": 19.751365, "activity_lines": [ 11.190667, 10.898909, 10.879952, 11.06486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 8.76, "volume": 103751878, "typical_volume": 37525564.1, "trend": 11.246333, "fair_value": 9.429764, "relative_strength": -19.588779, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.020585, "energy": 30.005644, "activity_lines": [ 10.392, 10.522182, 10.666333, 10.901699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.95, "volume": 58632946, "typical_volume": 38676331.35, "trend": 11.056333, "fair_value": 9.408695, "relative_strength": -26.79229, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.510043, "energy": 70.790121, "activity_lines": [ 9.413333, 10.047818, 10.391286, 10.689032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.5, "volume": 70373985, "typical_volume": 40841981.75, "trend": 10.944667, "fair_value": 9.390897, "relative_strength": -20.080979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.564461, "energy": 74.684022, "activity_lines": [ 8.864667, 9.728364, 10.188952, 10.524108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.21, "volume": 43572085, "typical_volume": 41851032.1, "trend": 10.881333, "fair_value": 9.375769, "relative_strength": -17.294491, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.968665, "energy": 72.11554, "activity_lines": [ 8.804, 9.576364, 10.069714, 10.412194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }