{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90ad5440-c8b0-4ee7-9dfd-efe1fc599188", "symbol": "TAEE11", "name": "Transmissora Alian\u00e7a de Energia El\u00e9trica S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.46, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.253, "architecture_energy": 23.01, "architecture_maturity": 15.321, "architecture_confidence": 66.604, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.52, "rotation_up": 20.38, "upward_expansion": 16.77, "deceleration": 53.64, "rotation_down": 47.46, "downward_expansion": 62.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.956, 40.16, 40.154368, 40.408338 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 39.25, "trend_reference": 40.63392, "distance_from_trend": -0.034058, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 32.767657, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.197827, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.629459, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020593, "excess_performance": 0.036456, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034058, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001894, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.197827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071652, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026295, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037941, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020593, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.578558, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8280100, "relative_activity": 1.120738, "balance": 0.578558, "dry_up": 1.248718, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039294, "annualized_volatility": 0.1984, "from_high_reference": -0.1183, "from_low_reference": 0.284358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 40.63392, "fair_value_reference": 32.767657, "structural_low": 37.919998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.001281, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.00063, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.057571, "worst_return": -0.094309, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.010379, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.024489, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.159333, "worst_return": -0.041886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.004613, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007333, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.144859, "worst_return": -0.044357, "sufficient": true }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008959, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.040057, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.213817, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": 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32.28701, "relative_strength": -1.869568, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.329911, "energy": 31.427798, "activity_lines": [ 39.415333, 39.419781, 40.240035, 40.444668 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 41.07, "volume": 1084500, "typical_volume": 7686875.0, "trend": 40.535857, "fair_value": 32.36701, "relative_strength": 0.837583, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.814089, "energy": 14.754419, "activity_lines": [ 40.007333, 39.642905, 40.265112, 40.481891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 41.77, "volume": 7020800, "typical_volume": 7805645.0, "trend": 40.583982, "fair_value": 32.456428, "relative_strength": 0.440637, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.123641, "energy": 15.538495, "activity_lines": [ 40.705333, 40.020853, 40.361727, 40.561513 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.889999, "volume": 10366000, "typical_volume": 7676405.0, "trend": 40.631414, "fair_value": 32.538035, "relative_strength": 0.659353, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.1148, "energy": 15.033185, "activity_lines": [ 40.898666, 40.242, 40.382553, 40.581256 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.299999, "volume": 8423800, "typical_volume": 7511710.0, "trend": 40.643733, "fair_value": 32.617931, "relative_strength": -0.983868, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.319972, "energy": 14.910433, "activity_lines": [ 40.815333, 40.34709, 40.355584, 40.559874 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.66, "volume": 9832600, "typical_volume": 7552230.0, "trend": 40.615087, "fair_value": 32.692195, "relative_strength": -4.64555, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.903055, "energy": 15.534346, "activity_lines": [ 40.452, 40.299272, 40.271925, 40.496408 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 39.25, "volume": 8280100, "typical_volume": 7388080.0, "trend": 40.63392, "fair_value": 32.767657, "relative_strength": -2.629459, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.253062, "energy": 23.009521, "activity_lines": [ 39.956, 40.16, 40.154368, 40.408338 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }