{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90aeddf1-0686-433c-826d-d54d46e38417", "symbol": "TEP", "name": "Telecom Plus Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.26, "architecture_energy": 78.018, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.086, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.03, "rotation_up": 27.92, "upward_expansion": 32.13, "deceleration": 43.15, "rotation_down": 46.29, "downward_expansion": 79.79 }, "activity_lines": [ 849.741693, 849.056935, 936.886397, 1029.178829 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 857.0, "trend_reference": 1142.573373, "distance_from_trend": -0.249939, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1604.182134, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465771, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -43.18798, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.362351, "excess_performance": -0.413586, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.249939, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155614, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465771, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094557, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.43188, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024119, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.362351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.387684, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3165387, "relative_activity": 2.008591, "balance": 1.387684, "dry_up": 1.599449, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068913, "annualized_volatility": 0.491507, "from_high_reference": -0.553529, "from_low_reference": 0.149658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1142.573373, "fair_value_reference": 1604.182134, "structural_low": 745.4389, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.012581, "positive_rate": 0.321429, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.027256, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.15619, "worst_return": -0.23506, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.004392, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.037844, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.318444, "worst_return": -0.367561, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.085458, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.029871, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.343453, "worst_return": -0.252528, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.437756, "energy": 57.840511, "activity_lines": [ 832.990507, 867.096456, 979.872381, 1070.490527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 839.1117, "volume": 1762793, "typical_volume": 1474577.55, "trend": 1159.873373, "fair_value": 1609.380674, "relative_strength": -45.183528, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.32256, "energy": 80.62114, "activity_lines": [ 840.755107, 854.369684, 956.32545, 1048.719046 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 857.0, "volume": 3165387, "typical_volume": 1575923.85, "trend": 1142.573373, "fair_value": 1604.182134, "relative_strength": -43.18798, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.260019, "energy": 78.017593, "activity_lines": [ 849.741693, 849.056935, 936.886397, 1029.178829 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }