{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90b4bcf0-038e-4394-8b8f-49b941fd9980", "symbol": "KALU", "name": "Kaiser Aluminum Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 89.123, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.536, "architecture_energy": 16.311, "architecture_maturity": 56.535, "architecture_confidence": 93.113, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.19, "rotation_up": 26.35, "upward_expansion": 47.49, "deceleration": 83.87, "rotation_down": 33.27, "downward_expansion": 30.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 168.346459, 170.369011, 171.717524, 163.694669 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 184.75, "trend_reference": 152.865428, "distance_from_trend": 0.208579, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 88.765811, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.081319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 29.981357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.339613, "excess_performance": 0.15216, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.208579, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.175242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.081319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183222, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.299814, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185074, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.339613, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.034617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1293844, "relative_activity": 0.995018, "balance": 1.034617, "dry_up": 1.064181, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109958, "annualized_volatility": 0.527025, "from_high_reference": -0.052756, "from_low_reference": 1.633983 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 152.865428, "fair_value_reference": 88.765811, "structural_low": 104.995449, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016335, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.000192, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.269438, "worst_return": -0.242439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.02223, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020722, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.628437, "worst_return": -0.200472, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.047532, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.135468, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.891023, "worst_return": -0.195957, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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25.604157, "activity_lines": [ 174.049963, 177.012686, 169.199979, 159.164109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 157.038933, "volume": 1128351, "typical_volume": 1265817.95, "trend": 147.852276, "fair_value": 86.864249, "relative_strength": 18.64287, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.635837, "energy": 19.185244, "activity_lines": [ 166.836697, 173.248425, 169.207163, 159.851621 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.17, "volume": 1519200, "typical_volume": 1289573.75, "trend": 149.41327, "fair_value": 87.454385, "relative_strength": 24.093602, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.486078, "energy": 21.903801, "activity_lines": [ 163.906524, 171.022378, 169.667497, 160.839861 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 159.68, "volume": 1593719, "typical_volume": 1322524.8, "trend": 150.767207, "fair_value": 88.021803, "relative_strength": 19.5707, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.391859, "energy": 17.644155, "activity_lines": [ 161.061129, 168.273058, 169.60017, 161.502231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 184.75, "volume": 1293844, "typical_volume": 1300322.4, "trend": 152.865428, "fair_value": 88.765811, "relative_strength": 29.981357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.53593, "energy": 16.311228, "activity_lines": [ 168.346459, 170.369011, 171.717524, 163.694669 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }