{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90b795ab-a3bf-40c4-bf63-fa09b87640e7", "symbol": "DML", "name": "Denison Mines Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 53.116, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.533, "architecture_energy": 50.272, "architecture_maturity": 13.529, "architecture_confidence": 92.288, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.7, "rotation_up": 15.42, "upward_expansion": 9.43, "deceleration": 41.73, "rotation_down": 56.68, "downward_expansion": 80.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.204667, 4.287091, 4.458238, 4.614882 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.49, "trend_reference": 4.823333, "distance_from_trend": -0.069109, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.115769, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441057, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.558844, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.110891, "excess_performance": -0.231312, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069109, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040633, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.441057, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.333956, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273933, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.648832, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11616700, "relative_activity": 0.897025, "balance": 0.648832, "dry_up": 1.269813, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111873, "annualized_volatility": 0.548243, "from_high_reference": -0.256623, "from_low_reference": 0.74031 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.823333, "fair_value_reference": 3.115769, "structural_low": 3.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.043796, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.035297, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.434211, "worst_return": -0.12093, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129032, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.183376, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.449782, "worst_return": -0.157609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.299697, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.292011, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.725581, "worst_return": -0.048913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099548, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074561, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151639, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.191126, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107004, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.109474, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130982, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.83, "volume": 5393300, "typical_volume": 5328930.0, "trend": 1.588667, "fair_value": 1.47391, "relative_strength": 14.217679, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", 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10231600, "typical_volume": 14340120.0, "trend": 4.817, "fair_value": 3.053462, "relative_strength": -2.3062, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.814494, "energy": 21.987501, "activity_lines": [ 4.532667, 4.519455, 4.685714, 4.794882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.97, "volume": 16152400, "typical_volume": 14141675.0, "trend": 4.822667, "fair_value": 3.06859, "relative_strength": -15.288017, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.677069, "energy": 49.453377, "activity_lines": [ 4.354, 4.410909, 4.604048, 4.740237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1, "volume": 12646100, "typical_volume": 13655120.0, "trend": 4.833333, "fair_value": 3.084359, "relative_strength": -12.846383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.03838, "energy": 53.811559, "activity_lines": [ 4.239333, 4.346909, 4.542905, 4.693613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.95, "volume": 25362400, "typical_volume": 14040095.0, "trend": 4.827, "fair_value": 3.098846, "relative_strength": -15.793146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.179961, "energy": 61.417124, "activity_lines": [ 4.117333, 4.263273, 4.471762, 4.636624 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.49, "volume": 11616700, "typical_volume": 12950255.0, "trend": 4.823333, "fair_value": 3.115769, "relative_strength": -7.558844, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.532615, "energy": 50.271504, "activity_lines": [ 4.204667, 4.287091, 4.458238, 4.614882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }