{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90b93c1d-2d9c-42ed-83bb-956a7f3e1379", "symbol": "300185", "name": "Tongyu Heavy Industry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.878, "architecture_energy": 42.366, "architecture_maturity": 43.393, "architecture_confidence": 89.888, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.8, "rotation_up": 27.39, "upward_expansion": 6.46, "deceleration": 57.52, "rotation_down": 43.61, "downward_expansion": 77.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.764, 2.764328, 2.849141, 2.971735 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.8, "trend_reference": 3.068357, "distance_from_trend": -0.08746, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.608168, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.07355, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.058863, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.063545, "excess_performance": -0.070945, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.08746, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021412, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.07355, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200493, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.110589, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003889, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063545, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.287303, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 405195672, "relative_activity": 0.679264, "balance": 0.287303, "dry_up": 0.624957, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062613, "annualized_volatility": 0.508949, "from_high_reference": -0.360731, "from_low_reference": 0.056604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.068357, "fair_value_reference": 2.608168, "structural_low": 2.65, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.017422, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": 0.003541, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.344633, "worst_return": -0.163823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.038628, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.027552, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.489361, "worst_return": -0.220859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.012648, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02838, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.323125, "worst_return": -0.117409, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.155979, "energy": 66.156699, "activity_lines": [ 2.746533, 2.768868, 2.939199, 3.029761 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.7, "volume": 414348127, "typical_volume": 839197593.2, "trend": 3.072024, "fair_value": 2.605549, "relative_strength": -11.863169, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.406885, "energy": 57.39891, "activity_lines": [ 2.726, 2.747456, 2.898148, 3.005394 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.82, "volume": 364698730, "typical_volume": 760371843.7, "trend": 3.069691, "fair_value": 2.606797, "relative_strength": -6.193988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.451915, "energy": 47.883354, "activity_lines": [ 2.750667, 2.756548, 2.871287, 2.989135 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.8, "volume": 405195672, "typical_volume": 596521778.65, "trend": 3.068357, "fair_value": 2.608168, "relative_strength": -11.058863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.878473, "energy": 42.365824, "activity_lines": [ 2.764, 2.764328, 2.849141, 2.971735 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }