{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90b9a0f6-dc16-4d13-901d-9e5d2afda95c", "symbol": "HVPE", "name": "HarbourVest Global Private Equity Ltd.", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.684, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.833, "architecture_energy": 41.123, "architecture_maturity": 29.793, "architecture_confidence": 59.728, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.04, "rotation_up": 44.4, "upward_expansion": 73.55, "deceleration": 69.26, "rotation_down": 24.61, "downward_expansion": 4.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 3371.0, 3357.545455, 3331.904762, 3270.784946 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3450.0, "trend_reference": 3204.333333, "distance_from_trend": 0.076667, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2646.794872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.303463, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.68447, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.123779, "excess_performance": 0.072543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076667, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031106, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.303463, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037338, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026845, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025465, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.123779, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.385468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 680259, "relative_activity": 1.207076, "balance": 1.385468, "dry_up": 1.491872, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032478, "annualized_volatility": 0.16035, "from_high_reference": -0.008621, "from_low_reference": 0.273063 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3204.333333, "fair_value_reference": 2646.794872, "structural_low": 2807.592041, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.038339, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.028745, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.060797, "worst_return": -0.154135, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.079325, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.046326, "worst_return": -0.129699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.09067, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.027257, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.131291, "worst_return": -0.073308, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.157692, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010644, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.179431, "worst_return": -0.148496, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021277, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019231, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.121154, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.066098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045267, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029821, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030741, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125227, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02027, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.072131, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043873, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2270.0, "volume": 625497, "typical_volume": 642609.3, "trend": 2155.966667, "fair_value": 2202.583333, "relative_strength": 7.46875, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", 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3290.02381, 3233.634409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3350.0, "volume": 2005158, "typical_volume": 633166.25, "trend": 3186.666667, "fair_value": 2633.141026, "relative_strength": 1.411211, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.693022, "energy": 24.359807, "activity_lines": [ 3327.666667, 3344.090909, 3303.357143, 3244.688172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3335.0, "volume": 365189, "typical_volume": 579910.2, "trend": 3193.833333, "fair_value": 2639.74359, "relative_strength": -0.345599, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.978959, "energy": 24.188419, "activity_lines": [ 3329.333333, 3340.909091, 3313.02381, 3254.258065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3450.0, "volume": 680259, "typical_volume": 563559.4, "trend": 3204.333333, "fair_value": 2646.794872, "relative_strength": 2.68447, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.832966, "energy": 41.12349, "activity_lines": [ 3371.0, 3357.545455, 3331.904762, 3270.784946 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }