{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90bbd66c-0c2b-4954-b627-409d5059077c", "symbol": "DG", "name": "Vinci SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 82.671, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.565, "architecture_energy": 56.741, "architecture_maturity": 6.093, "architecture_confidence": 85.276, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.31, "rotation_up": 14.31, "upward_expansion": 15.12, "deceleration": 34.96, "rotation_down": 60.25, "downward_expansion": 83.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 121.913332, 123.124545, 124.511085, 125.297247 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 125.349998, "trend_reference": 125.495298, "distance_from_trend": -0.001158, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 108.76467, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.152488, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.522262, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.038174, "excess_performance": -0.091486, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001158, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021154, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.152488, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059211, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.089142, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.038174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.235239, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4944299, "relative_activity": 1.435671, "balance": 1.235239, "dry_up": 1.087184, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.035623, "annualized_volatility": 0.23198, "from_high_reference": -0.098309, "from_low_reference": 0.158651 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.495298, "fair_value_reference": 108.76467, "structural_low": 117.099998, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.029314, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.00073, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.041554, "worst_return": -0.015651, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.059027, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.035697, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090227, "worst_return": 0.027826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.107815, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.068806, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152199, "worst_return": 0.063431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"mixed", "direction": -41.142682, "energy": 46.969941, "activity_lines": [ 122.62, 124.218182, 125.477918, 125.850353 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 118.349998, "volume": 3190153, "typical_volume": 3546563.5, "trend": 125.055568, "fair_value": 108.34131, "relative_strength": -5.386894, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.543147, "energy": 61.646479, "activity_lines": [ 120.429999, 123.079091, 124.759664, 125.42237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 123.0, "volume": 3613307, "typical_volume": 3512578.5, "trend": 125.233838, "fair_value": 108.550063, "relative_strength": -3.170448, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.848329, "energy": 56.973371, "activity_lines": [ 120.543332, 122.9, 124.517243, 125.289753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 125.349998, "volume": 4944299, "typical_volume": 3443895.05, "trend": 125.495298, "fair_value": 108.76467, "relative_strength": -3.522262, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.564993, "energy": 56.740577, "activity_lines": [ 121.913332, 123.124545, 124.511085, 125.297247 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }