{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90caec69-7c0b-4a9f-bef7-c92bcd561197", "symbol": "XCS4", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Thailand UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.203, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.463, "architecture_energy": 18.839, "architecture_maturity": 33.81, "architecture_confidence": 87.206, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.85, "rotation_up": 33.9, "upward_expansion": 58.18, "deceleration": 81.88, "rotation_down": 24.8, "downward_expansion": 17.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.095667, 29.144546, 29.074096, 28.711656 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.165001, "trend_reference": 28.020084, "distance_from_trend": 0.040861, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 22.343448, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.305304, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.807539, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12824, "excess_performance": 0.077005, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.040861, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078823, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.305304, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006471, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.048075, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104537, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12824, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881611, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27021, "relative_activity": 1.086933, "balance": 0.881611, "dry_up": 1.541301, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037123, "annualized_volatility": 0.26592, "from_high_reference": -0.04377, "from_low_reference": 0.374411 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.020084, "fair_value_reference": 22.343448, "structural_low": 25.6, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.003225, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01007, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036403, "worst_return": -0.06182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.035086, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.003164, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.137327, "worst_return": -0.106961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.054312, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.006132, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.26795, "worst_return": -0.132452, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.004682, 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Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.015133, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05704, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030603, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047345, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007028, "active": false 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26.65625, "fair_value": 22.050611, "relative_strength": 12.744621, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.446194, "energy": 58.166577, "activity_lines": [ 29.502001, 29.203637, 28.645215, 27.887054 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 28.08, "volume": 2157, "typical_volume": 26226.1, "trend": 26.834584, "fair_value": 22.090291, "relative_strength": 6.768891, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.381914, "energy": 31.933167, "activity_lines": [ 29.040334, 29.043819, 28.635619, 27.978909 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 29.605, "volume": 4167, "typical_volume": 22982.9, "trend": 27.05075, "fair_value": 22.140211, "relative_strength": 10.270639, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.731266, "energy": 32.208409, "activity_lines": [ 29.152667, 29.177546, 28.760643, 28.157645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 29.52, "volume": 10427, "typical_volume": 22964.15, "trend": 27.271, "fair_value": 22.18497, "relative_strength": 11.313845, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.063493, "energy": 26.777238, "activity_lines": [ 29.242333, 29.259728, 28.867429, 28.316952 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.200001, "volume": 2341, "typical_volume": 22580.5, "trend": 27.46825, "fair_value": 22.225403, "relative_strength": 8.711443, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.984678, "energy": 23.538407, "activity_lines": [ 29.211667, 29.264637, 28.9385, 28.441404 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.15, "volume": 87642, "typical_volume": 24777.45, "trend": 27.643417, "fair_value": 22.262647, "relative_strength": 6.842494, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.469488, "energy": 28.107474, "activity_lines": [ 29.226667, 29.249182, 29.006953, 28.549904 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.809999, "volume": 36262, "typical_volume": 24817.75, "trend": 27.824417, "fair_value": 22.300676, "relative_strength": 4.056872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.793352, "energy": 21.737966, "activity_lines": [ 29.126333, 29.162273, 29.029429, 28.625167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.165001, "volume": 27021, "typical_volume": 24859.85, "trend": 28.020084, "fair_value": 22.343448, "relative_strength": 4.807539, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.46302, "energy": 18.838964, "activity_lines": [ 29.095667, 29.144546, 29.074096, 28.711656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }