{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90cb13f6-ed50-4bad-aad3-65039d2947d7", "symbol": "COASTCORP", "name": "Coastal Corporation Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.781, "architecture_energy": 36.146, "architecture_maturity": 37.471, "architecture_confidence": 60.427, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.25, "rotation_up": 17.77, "upward_expansion": 20.65, "deceleration": 53.2, "rotation_down": 54.9, "downward_expansion": 45.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.857334, 49.174545, 51.676381, 51.206925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.330002, "trend_reference": 50.121666, "distance_from_trend": -0.135504, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.556943, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.088882, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.905135, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.147215, "excess_performance": -0.103506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.135504, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.088882, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049051, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.580457, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.147215, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.230905, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2770877, "relative_activity": 4.286387, "balance": 0.230905, "dry_up": 1.548229, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.14726, "annualized_volatility": 0.477421, "from_high_reference": -0.350375, "from_low_reference": 0.452205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.121666, "fair_value_reference": 47.556943, "structural_low": 37.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010433, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.001474, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.228197, "worst_return": -0.150937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.114606, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.076361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.290552, "worst_return": -0.18569, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.029175, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.139933, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.094576, "worst_return": -0.243012, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063262, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.142096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.028768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.113191, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138727, "active": false 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"activity_lines": [ 50.764, 52.284545, 52.849809, 51.528021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.619999, "volume": 687965, "typical_volume": 566796.85, "trend": 49.890666, "fair_value": 47.579841, "relative_strength": 18.605633, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.448918, "energy": 10.282285, "activity_lines": [ 51.453999, 51.936908, 52.976761, 51.718666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 49.93, "volume": 209428, "typical_volume": 561937.5, "trend": 50.017333, "fair_value": 47.589502, "relative_strength": 14.436517, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.999346, "energy": 7.817076, "activity_lines": [ 50.996, 51.277636, 52.81419, 51.721204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.84, "volume": 335057, "typical_volume": 547967.85, "trend": 50.124, "fair_value": 47.595396, "relative_strength": 8.445384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.484332, "energy": 8.973635, "activity_lines": [ 50.302666, 50.644363, 52.520047, 51.645247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.330002, "volume": 2770877, "typical_volume": 646436.55, "trend": 50.121666, "fair_value": 47.556943, "relative_strength": -4.905135, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.780944, "energy": 36.146385, "activity_lines": [ 47.857334, 49.174545, 51.676381, 51.206925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }