{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90ccb9af-6068-4bff-838a-6039868e7195", "symbol": "QQQT", "name": "Evolve NASDAQ Technology Index Fund CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 54.059, "architecture_energy": 31.577, "architecture_maturity": 72.924, "architecture_confidence": 93.833, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.69, "rotation_up": 33.01, "upward_expansion": 59.54, "deceleration": 88.25, "rotation_down": 27.58, "downward_expansion": 20.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.331334, 49.544384, 48.934132, 46.872827 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 50.990002, "trend_reference": 44.375889, "distance_from_trend": 0.149047, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 32.88535, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.550539, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.137461, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.292329, "excess_performance": 0.171908, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.149047, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077822, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.550539, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.081375, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292329, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.998534, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8900, "relative_activity": 0.542518, "balance": 1.998534, "dry_up": 1.258763, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04862, "annualized_volatility": 0.287482, "from_high_reference": -0.022597, "from_low_reference": 0.473379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.375889, "fair_value_reference": 32.88535, "structural_low": 34.620072, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.07775, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.288206, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-06", 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"volume": 19300, "typical_volume": 16805.0, "trend": 43.772219, "fair_value": 32.515319, "relative_strength": 4.868608, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.98639, "energy": 36.520312, "activity_lines": [ 49.093384, 49.600758, 48.257907, 46.137446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.220001, "volume": 21400, "typical_volume": 17115.0, "trend": 44.039377, "fair_value": 32.688429, "relative_strength": 5.770117, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.484484, "energy": 27.653685, "activity_lines": [ 48.725333, 49.312746, 48.488812, 46.4244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.990002, "volume": 8900, "typical_volume": 16405.0, "trend": 44.375889, "fair_value": 32.88535, "relative_strength": 8.137461, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.059116, "energy": 31.576658, "activity_lines": [ 49.331334, 49.544384, 48.934132, 46.872827 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }