{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90d28963-bfa0-47e6-9c71-a116bdb29dc0", "symbol": "GDEV", "name": "GDEV Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.968, "architecture_energy": 26.357, "architecture_maturity": 38.003, "architecture_confidence": 61.001, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.89, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 14.38, "deceleration": 59.95, "rotation_down": 38.47, "downward_expansion": 64.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.656667, 12.474736, 13.336817, 13.895869 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.48, "trend_reference": 14.762393, "distance_from_trend": -0.086869, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.632182, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.276521, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.714494, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.156446, "excess_performance": -0.343899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.086869, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.276521, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090858, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.307145, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.154629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.156446, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.671792, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 156759, "relative_activity": 6.305532, "balance": 2.671792, "dry_up": 2.26069, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.148253, "annualized_volatility": 0.531524, "from_high_reference": -0.680569, "from_low_reference": 0.203571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.762393, "fair_value_reference": 18.632182, "structural_low": 11.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.024023, "regime_survival": 0.782609, "best_return": 0.488772, "worst_return": -0.278007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.055158, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.034328, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.617043, "worst_return": -0.393999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.027277, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.11957, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.217391, "worst_return": -0.300912, "sufficient": false }, { 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14.02039, 14.532295 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.76, "volume": 4937, "typical_volume": 14325.1, "trend": 15.012573, "fair_value": 19.410423, "relative_strength": -38.069701, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.977608, "energy": 50.483915, "activity_lines": [ 12.071353, 12.518378, 13.75708, 14.311097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.6, "volume": 57333, "typical_volume": 17139.4, "trend": 14.900393, "fair_value": 19.147761, "relative_strength": -32.171114, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.695807, "energy": 38.467896, "activity_lines": [ 12.21268, 12.412922, 13.589389, 14.155447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.21, "volume": 5779, "typical_volume": 17225.7, "trend": 14.81306, "fair_value": 18.900563, "relative_strength": -34.241007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.71852, "energy": 35.807745, "activity_lines": [ 12.230007, 12.300011, 13.396698, 13.981873 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.48, "volume": 156759, "typical_volume": 24860.55, "trend": 14.762393, "fair_value": 18.632182, "relative_strength": -30.714494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.967689, "energy": 26.357403, "activity_lines": [ 12.656667, 12.474736, 13.336817, 13.895869 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }