{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90d4e948-9ee6-4612-b197-83aa6c618011", "symbol": "601155", "name": "Seazen Holdings Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.025, "architecture_energy": 40.467, "architecture_maturity": 83.982, "architecture_confidence": 63.41, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.68, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 18.74, "deceleration": 66.79, "rotation_down": 35.39, "downward_expansion": 64.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.075333, 10.989273, 11.835571, 12.648065 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.02, "trend_reference": 13.711667, "distance_from_trend": -0.196305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.778526, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.137616, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.149504, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.376697, "excess_performance": -0.333493, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.196305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074078, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.137616, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.324167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221495, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.18135, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.376697, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.811542, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 105702126, "relative_activity": 1.479413, "balance": 0.811542, "dry_up": 1.350289, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099679, "annualized_volatility": 0.344848, "from_high_reference": -0.399455, "from_low_reference": 0.102 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.711667, "fair_value_reference": 12.778526, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": -0.039363, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.043542, "regime_survival": 0.828571, "best_return": 0.469697, "worst_return": -0.297907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.089231, "positive_rate": 0.181818, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.078599, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.455021, "worst_return": -0.229008, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.145307, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.107829, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.721535, "worst_return": -0.457874, 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{ "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028369, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.079385, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023994, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059946, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.213531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": 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12.906987, "relative_strength": -30.811322, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.43716, "energy": 92.69232, "activity_lines": [ 11.188, 12.211091, 13.23781, 13.855785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.48, "volume": 17466570, "typical_volume": 69061543.95, "trend": 14.223667, "fair_value": 12.877628, "relative_strength": -30.213156, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.38123, "energy": 90.275155, "activity_lines": [ 10.812, 11.751818, 12.890048, 13.604731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.83, "volume": 73044739, "typical_volume": 68394339.35, "trend": 14.099667, "fair_value": 12.858526, "relative_strength": -26.587734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.460676, "energy": 85.596334, "activity_lines": [ 10.728667, 11.422, 12.607714, 13.385785 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.15, "volume": 104907736, "typical_volume": 69959548.65, "trend": 14.011333, "fair_value": 12.837628, "relative_strength": -19.190123, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.167017, "energy": 70.998072, "activity_lines": [ 10.814667, 11.222182, 12.384143, 13.195484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.98, "volume": 82306464, "typical_volume": 69458799.55, "trend": 13.904333, "fair_value": 12.81859, "relative_strength": -20.972999, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.112947, "energy": 56.848577, "activity_lines": [ 10.891333, 11.069818, 12.170667, 12.999914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.24, "volume": 92989226, "typical_volume": 70499848.6, "trend": 13.809333, "fair_value": 12.801859, "relative_strength": -18.91004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.085018, "energy": 45.159082, "activity_lines": [ 11.047333, 11.035091, 12.004714, 12.828021 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.02, "volume": 105702126, "typical_volume": 71448713.95, "trend": 13.711667, "fair_value": 12.778526, "relative_strength": -22.149504, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.024819, "energy": 40.466906, "activity_lines": [ 11.075333, 10.989273, 11.835571, 12.648065 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }