{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90d7c1e7-a0c3-4d3a-a719-4d25bdb84f7c", "symbol": "EMRG", "name": "State Street SPDR MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 73.599, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.37, "architecture_energy": 24.888, "architecture_maturity": 65.263, "architecture_confidence": 81.508, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.37, "rotation_up": 18.21, "upward_expansion": 52.56, "deceleration": 93.99, "rotation_down": 35.93, "downward_expansion": 18.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 87.928667, 89.359637, 89.051381, 86.947807 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 88.690002, "trend_reference": 84.202667, "distance_from_trend": 0.053292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.637211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.37212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.345929, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130817, "excess_performance": -0.040074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.053292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076917, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.37212, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082667, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023459, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126413, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130817, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.224364, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33806, "relative_activity": 1.892197, "balance": 1.224364, "dry_up": 2.483936, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041614, "annualized_volatility": 0.224741, "from_high_reference": -0.074507, "from_low_reference": 0.368039 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 84.202667, "fair_value_reference": 64.637211, "structural_low": 73.68, "invalidation": "A 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"activity_lines": [ 92.426, 91.684364, 88.40681, 85.812215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 86.379997, "volume": 16107, "typical_volume": 13754.45, "trend": 82.797, "fair_value": 63.965609, "relative_strength": -1.208187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.78774, "energy": 37.308602, "activity_lines": [ 90.351332, 90.862727, 88.517762, 86.075721 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 87.839996, "volume": 78386, "typical_volume": 17097.25, "trend": 83.346333, "fair_value": 64.181955, "relative_strength": 0.483896, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.667436, "energy": 23.648689, "activity_lines": [ 89.098664, 90.361999, 88.747857, 86.401075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.910004, "volume": 49213, "typical_volume": 17882.25, "trend": 83.779333, "fair_value": 64.399776, "relative_strength": -1.366773, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.65265, "energy": 24.691937, "activity_lines": [ 88.037333, 89.683636, 88.838, 86.630989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 88.690002, "volume": 33806, "typical_volume": 17866.0, "trend": 84.202667, "fair_value": 64.637211, "relative_strength": -2.345929, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.369549, "energy": 24.888235, "activity_lines": [ 87.928667, 89.359637, 89.051381, 86.947807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }