{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90dbc615-ee0c-402d-9d38-fabb1ffb89e6", "symbol": "CNI", "name": "Canadian National Railway Company", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.365, "architecture_energy": 76.605, "architecture_maturity": 42.403, "architecture_confidence": 89.315, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.19, "rotation_up": 69.83, "upward_expansion": 91.02, "deceleration": 47.56, "rotation_down": 14.2, "downward_expansion": 17.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 127.516, 125.170131, 120.837441, 117.036014 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 126.6, "trend_reference": 112.031683, "distance_from_trend": 0.130037, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 106.568728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187966, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 8.333582, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.262905, "excess_performance": 0.13728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.130037, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088467, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187966, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136788, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.083336, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088381, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.262905, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.668278, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7527966, "relative_activity": 1.036897, "balance": 1.668278, "dry_up": 1.192351, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040339, "annualized_volatility": 0.228887, "from_high_reference": -0.037628, "from_low_reference": 0.420948 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 112.031683, "fair_value_reference": 106.568728, "structural_low": 97.448653, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.003141, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.00893, "regime_survival": 0.647059, "best_return": 0.13753, "worst_return": -0.120057, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.01344, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03455, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.154991, "worst_return": -0.109878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.050401, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.046284, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.312073, "worst_return": -0.10865, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 9200904, "typical_volume": 7567919.2, "trend": 110.135426, "fair_value": 106.341131, "relative_strength": 16.590537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.071664, "energy": 88.37102, "activity_lines": [ 126.693333, 123.222477, 118.509163, 114.932589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 127.21, "volume": 9658040, "typical_volume": 7453321.3, "trend": 111.071484, "fair_value": 106.457035, "relative_strength": 12.97192, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.223398, "energy": 84.989427, "activity_lines": [ 127.428, 124.375299, 119.756539, 116.034175 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 126.6, "volume": 7527966, "typical_volume": 7260088.2, "trend": 112.031683, "fair_value": 106.568728, "relative_strength": 8.333582, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.364673, "energy": 76.604576, "activity_lines": [ 127.516, 125.170131, 120.837441, 117.036014 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }