{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90dc64e4-b6d9-414a-9d1f-6c1e709ad481", "symbol": "CURI", "name": "Curiositystream Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.015, "architecture_energy": 34.89, "architecture_maturity": 68.783, "architecture_confidence": 93.711, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.98, "rotation_up": 19.82, "upward_expansion": 3.96, "deceleration": 48.22, "rotation_down": 48.6, "downward_expansion": 74.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.543333, 2.582455, 2.662509, 2.765543 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.71, "trend_reference": 2.920797, "distance_from_trend": -0.072171, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.255623, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.201442, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.189086, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.133239, "excess_performance": -0.320693, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072171, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.134725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.201442, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.218088, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321891, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058406, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133239, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.874182, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1387924, "relative_activity": 0.723877, "balance": 0.874182, "dry_up": 0.795137, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.129635, "annualized_volatility": 0.530097, "from_high_reference": -0.4717, "from_low_reference": 0.214352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.920797, "fair_value_reference": 2.255623, "structural_low": 2.231643, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.077477, "positive_rate": 0.282051, "directional_follow_through": 0.717949, "median_excess_return": -0.086533, "regime_survival": 0.948718, "best_return": 1.080809, "worst_return": -0.330896, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.133139, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.170165, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 1.138575, "worst_return": -0.60682, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.284309, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.413203, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.845385, "worst_return": -0.643312, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -39.455732, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.280093, "energy": 36.212158, "activity_lines": [ 2.558667, 2.596168, 2.704623, 2.815345 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.44, "volume": 1228380, "typical_volume": 1954777.7, "trend": 2.942263, "fair_value": 2.243298, "relative_strength": -36.567524, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.069709, "energy": 45.65605, "activity_lines": [ 2.502, 2.564455, 2.668884, 2.780527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.71, "volume": 1387924, "typical_volume": 1917348.45, "trend": 2.920797, "fair_value": 2.255623, "relative_strength": -32.189086, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.015157, "energy": 34.889558, "activity_lines": [ 2.543333, 2.582455, 2.662509, 2.765543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }