{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90e16257-9e61-4bc7-881b-809c2fc6d90b", "symbol": "KEBNI-B", "name": "KebNi AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.055, "architecture_energy": 62.303, "architecture_maturity": 90.946, "architecture_confidence": 91.074, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.5, "rotation_up": 16.08, "upward_expansion": 12.67, "deceleration": 40.0, "rotation_down": 68.51, "downward_expansion": 90.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.037533, 1.074855, 1.133329, 1.187009 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 1.294133, "distance_from_trend": -0.211828, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.464538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.303535, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -42.950903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.393579, "excess_performance": -0.455073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.211828, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119198, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.303535, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195083, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.429509, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081454, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.393579, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.872698, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1993863, "relative_activity": 0.65651, "balance": 0.872698, "dry_up": 0.566062, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127225, "annualized_volatility": 0.537694, "from_high_reference": -0.618692, "from_low_reference": 0.100324 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.294133, "fair_value_reference": 1.464538, "structural_low": 0.927, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.043175, "positive_rate": 0.235294, "directional_follow_through": 0.764706, "median_excess_return": -0.070735, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.32963, "worst_return": -0.181818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.148837, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.133567, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 1.096774, "worst_return": -0.225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.384211, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.226941, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.284884, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"2026-07-17", "close": 1.08, "volume": 1646681, "typical_volume": 3456811.7, "trend": 1.3511, "fair_value": 1.473109, "relative_strength": -40.355445, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.781602, "energy": 56.874797, "activity_lines": [ 1.096533, 1.143, 1.181695, 1.24603 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.041, "volume": 1477861, "typical_volume": 3319482.3, "trend": 1.3374, "fair_value": 1.470167, "relative_strength": -42.042209, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.247793, "energy": 66.52877, "activity_lines": [ 1.066467, 1.118764, 1.165062, 1.226024 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.03, "volume": 1758261, "typical_volume": 3129925.65, "trend": 1.317333, "fair_value": 1.467244, "relative_strength": -42.319133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.638602, "energy": 64.501338, "activity_lines": [ 1.047867, 1.095509, 1.149071, 1.206191 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 1993863, "typical_volume": 3037063.85, "trend": 1.294133, "fair_value": 1.464538, "relative_strength": -42.950903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.054863, "energy": 62.303041, "activity_lines": [ 1.037533, 1.074855, 1.133329, 1.187009 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }