{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90ea3239-9c50-4cb9-a636-4ca73130649d", "symbol": "SPG", "name": "Springer Nature AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.794, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 45.76, "architecture_energy": 20.807, "architecture_maturity": 26.44, "architecture_confidence": 50.164, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.87, "rotation_up": 39.4, "upward_expansion": 57.15, "deceleration": 60.06, "rotation_down": 27.0, "downward_expansion": 21.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.867333, 18.671636, 18.831905, 18.531312 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.25, "trend_reference": 18.094333, "distance_from_trend": 0.119135, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 20.711678, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.022291, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.041181, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.225787, "excess_performance": 0.161147, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119135, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018958, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.022291, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015926, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.040412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.05029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.225787, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.43186, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 360640, "relative_activity": 1.745789, "balance": 1.43186, "dry_up": 1.301421, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068946, "annualized_volatility": 0.382009, "from_high_reference": -0.178499, "from_low_reference": 0.377551 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.094333, "fair_value_reference": 20.711678, "structural_low": 14.7, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.011582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.024224, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.017347, "worst_return": -0.040512, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.090816, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.131018, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.090816, "worst_return": -0.090816, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.585273, "energy": 10.779165, "activity_lines": [ 18.497333, 18.770182, 18.780286, 18.387484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.0, "volume": 159469, "typical_volume": 253862.25, "trend": 18.114, "fair_value": 20.77088, "relative_strength": -10.041754, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.549495, "energy": 9.969615, "activity_lines": [ 18.306667, 18.580364, 18.749048, 18.380215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.82, "volume": 284793, "typical_volume": 249480.9, "trend": 18.078667, "fair_value": 20.739819, "relative_strength": -11.682965, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 0.399868, "energy": 12.246207, "activity_lines": [ 18.094667, 18.397818, 18.690476, 18.361247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.5, "volume": 270473, "typical_volume": 248860.7, "trend": 18.035333, "fair_value": 20.716487, "relative_strength": -10.045285, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.274263, "energy": 11.535568, "activity_lines": [ 18.172, 18.362545, 18.685429, 18.38843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.25, "volume": 360640, "typical_volume": 206577.05, "trend": 18.094333, "fair_value": 20.711678, "relative_strength": -4.041181, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.759747, "energy": 20.807064, "activity_lines": [ 18.867333, 18.671636, 18.831905, 18.531312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }