{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90ed141f-0b7c-4e5a-a708-3673a9a41fb6", "symbol": "00683L", "name": "Yuanta S&P US Dollar 2x Leverage ER Futures ETF", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 70.97, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 46.809, "architecture_energy": 35.816, "architecture_maturity": 52.789, "architecture_confidence": 40.679, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.19, "rotation_up": 42.15, "upward_expansion": 66.44, "deceleration": 65.02, "rotation_down": 24.7, "downward_expansion": 16.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.824, 21.850546, 21.627429, 21.474151 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.58, "trend_reference": 21.257334, "distance_from_trend": 0.015179, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.993718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.018811, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.450741, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.070968, "excess_performance": -0.308344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.015179, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012608, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.018811, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035555, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.254507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.091835, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.070968, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.973281, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 470004, "relative_activity": 1.228882, "balance": 0.973281, "dry_up": 0.926941, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016005, "annualized_volatility": 0.11207, "from_high_reference": -0.034884, "from_low_reference": 0.087702 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.257334, "fair_value_reference": 21.993718, "structural_low": 20.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.001961, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.517241, "median_excess_return": 0.017107, "regime_survival": 0.724138, "best_return": 0.09382, "worst_return": -0.137378, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010112, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.074369, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.131269, "worst_return": -0.188897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.005628, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.109661, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.275306, "worst_return": -0.152003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.075425, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.291557, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.327736, "worst_return": -0.141677, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028298, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003305, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041267, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084738, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03357, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010476, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023037, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021401, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031296, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004662, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017169, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031777, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002312, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 21.4, "volume": 2635005, "typical_volume": 5322202.25, "trend": 21.393, "fair_value": 19.615321, "relative_strength": -13.985038, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"activity_lines": [ 21.944667, 21.758, 21.509476, 21.345613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.280001, "volume": 126000, "typical_volume": 750810.3, "trend": 21.19, "fair_value": 21.984167, "relative_strength": -23.765017, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.336213, "energy": 83.52135, "activity_lines": [ 22.066667, 21.882909, 21.593905, 21.419161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.690001, "volume": 303085, "typical_volume": 568864.5, "trend": 21.227667, "fair_value": 21.990385, "relative_strength": -24.083726, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.559333, "energy": 50.278473, "activity_lines": [ 21.948667, 21.880728, 21.616476, 21.45142 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.58, "volume": 470004, "typical_volume": 382464.65, "trend": 21.257334, "fair_value": 21.993718, "relative_strength": -25.450741, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.809112, "energy": 35.816059, "activity_lines": [ 21.824, 21.850546, 21.627429, 21.474151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }