{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90eedfce-be5b-4f1c-9b50-5b5e5499c618", "symbol": "FRU", "name": "Freehold Royalties Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 55.513, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 6.862, "architecture_energy": 15.72, "architecture_maturity": 23.569, "architecture_confidence": 54.136, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.15, "rotation_up": 52.47, "upward_expansion": 34.34, "deceleration": 43.46, "rotation_down": 20.71, "downward_expansion": 23.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.863582, 16.647863, 16.779226, 16.841733 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.92, "trend_reference": 16.787089, "distance_from_trend": 0.007917, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.013943, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.300144, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.349753, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042998, "excess_performance": -0.077423, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007917, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04423, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.300144, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064567, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.023498, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096029, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042998, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.670008, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2527800, "relative_activity": 0.967053, "balance": 1.670008, "dry_up": 1.180727, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037704, "annualized_volatility": 0.185962, "from_high_reference": -0.058118, "from_low_reference": 0.372091 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.787089, "fair_value_reference": 13.013943, "structural_low": 15.557872, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.023065, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.025833, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.185009, "worst_return": -0.101774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.062218, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.001165, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.224137, "worst_return": -0.017188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033838, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.093413, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.3003, "worst_return": -0.00987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.074155, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.084387, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092336, "worst_return": 0.014031, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.084082, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.106246, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033348, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.027847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048387, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021943, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.358475, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", 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12.876252, "relative_strength": -4.07553, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.610326, "energy": 50.655807, "activity_lines": [ 16.168227, 16.510113, 16.794436, 16.770892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.592569, "volume": 3035400, "typical_volume": 2975445.0, "trend": 16.564609, "fair_value": 12.909492, "relative_strength": -0.934846, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.896657, "energy": 48.945037, "activity_lines": [ 16.258542, 16.47769, 16.759787, 16.777257 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.871099, "volume": 2760600, "typical_volume": 2914895.0, "trend": 16.635876, "fair_value": 12.944206, "relative_strength": 0.354762, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.188266, "energy": 19.5246, "activity_lines": [ 16.473153, 16.505557, 16.75513, 16.797031 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.120001, "volume": 4021500, "typical_volume": 2824605.0, "trend": 16.711244, "fair_value": 12.980878, "relative_strength": 2.119095, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.862671, "energy": 8.767571, "activity_lines": [ 16.735884, 16.592255, 16.777631, 16.828265 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.92, "volume": 2527800, "typical_volume": 2613920.0, "trend": 16.787089, "fair_value": 13.013943, "relative_strength": -2.349753, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 6.862304, "energy": 15.720202, "activity_lines": [ 16.863582, 16.647863, 16.779226, 16.841733 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }