{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90f694c4-7720-4511-8509-b8c939ed25e9", "symbol": "2523", "name": "MAXIS TOPIX Ex-Financials ETF", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.434, "architecture_energy": 41.481, "architecture_maturity": 48.183, "architecture_confidence": 62.297, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.47, "rotation_up": 57.08, "upward_expansion": 78.4, "deceleration": 66.5, "rotation_down": 17.71, "downward_expansion": 5.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 3207.553337, 3170.431161, 3104.726214, 3051.506013 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3200.0, "trend_reference": 2975.63597, "distance_from_trend": 0.0754, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2355.653661, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.358434, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.65518, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.16895, "excess_performance": -0.040309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.0754, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.358434, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029607, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.056552, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075484, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.16895, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.642442, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3390, "relative_activity": 7.220447, "balance": 1.642442, "dry_up": 3.013845, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05246, "annualized_volatility": 0.288643, "from_high_reference": -0.077544, "from_low_reference": 0.291787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2975.63597, "fair_value_reference": 2355.653661, "structural_low": 2780.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.009629, "positive_rate": 0.617647, "directional_follow_through": 0.617647, "median_excess_return": -0.001077, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.09663, "worst_return": -0.092869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.037776, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.002028, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.149934, "worst_return": -0.04971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.100533, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.005292, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.235542, "worst_return": -0.094687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-24", "close": 3189.0, "volume": 1580, "typical_volume": 274.5, "trend": 2935.016195, "fair_value": 2336.877567, "relative_strength": -5.278823, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.797752, "energy": 49.22421, "activity_lines": [ 3162.049268, 3130.743128, 3066.138872, 3015.643149 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3247.0, "volume": 640, "typical_volume": 300.5, "trend": 2956.109416, "fair_value": 2346.350514, "relative_strength": -2.839047, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.693098, "energy": 49.383704, "activity_lines": [ 3197.044108, 3157.287145, 3088.545638, 3035.771136 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3200.0, "volume": 3390, "typical_volume": 469.5, "trend": 2975.63597, "fair_value": 2355.653661, "relative_strength": -5.65518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.433559, "energy": 41.481182, "activity_lines": [ 3207.553337, 3170.431161, 3104.726214, 3051.506013 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }