{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90f6da1f-9e1e-40db-a49a-0cfc0d9bd180", "symbol": "NCH2", "name": "thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 84.586, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.389, "architecture_energy": 25.578, "architecture_maturity": 41.58, "architecture_confidence": 76.416, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.59, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 14.64, "deceleration": 44.79, "rotation_down": 31.81, "downward_expansion": 59.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.695, 7.631545, 7.872929, 8.036699 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.0, "trend_reference": 8.303, "distance_from_trend": -0.036493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.839712, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.261973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.839153, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127114, "excess_performance": -0.191754, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.261973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032933, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.148392, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127114, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.130594, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276778, "relative_activity": 0.863099, "balance": 2.130594, "dry_up": 0.734436, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066731, "annualized_volatility": 0.29708, "from_high_reference": -0.327731, "from_low_reference": 0.134752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.303, "fair_value_reference": 10.839712, "structural_low": 7.05, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.050909, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": 0.024055, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.185135, "worst_return": -0.001177, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.111918, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023343, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.227703, "worst_return": -0.003866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.178378, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.125187, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.178378, "worst_return": 0.178378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.268531, "energy": 69.913577, "activity_lines": [ 7.516667, 7.790091, 8.039929, 8.228183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.52, "volume": 226858, "typical_volume": 369027.7, "trend": 8.416833, "fair_value": 11.127756, "relative_strength": -16.73394, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.368769, "energy": 65.358288, "activity_lines": [ 7.495, 7.703545, 7.976833, 8.167054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.565, "volume": 192991, "typical_volume": 357328.0, "trend": 8.376667, "fair_value": 11.031378, "relative_strength": -16.576324, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.317169, "energy": 40.980856, "activity_lines": [ 7.519, 7.637, 7.925476, 8.112097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.54, "volume": 245447, "typical_volume": 354900.05, "trend": 8.332, "fair_value": 10.932404, "relative_strength": -18.055915, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.600027, "energy": 38.304706, "activity_lines": [ 7.545667, 7.582636, 7.875857, 8.058118 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.0, "volume": 276778, "typical_volume": 320679.45, "trend": 8.303, "fair_value": 10.839712, "relative_strength": -14.839153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.388882, "energy": 25.57816, "activity_lines": [ 7.695, 7.631545, 7.872929, 8.036699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }