{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90fbd27f-249b-4449-bff5-3d19e0b3638e", "symbol": "CGW", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P GLOBAL WATER INDEX ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.314, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.018, "architecture_energy": 25.919, "architecture_maturity": 11.563, "architecture_confidence": 63.838, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.37, "rotation_up": 56.49, "upward_expansion": 42.43, "deceleration": 30.99, "rotation_down": 19.51, "downward_expansion": 15.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.647, 65.337447, 64.648275, 64.664928 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 66.74, "trend_reference": 64.94528, "distance_from_trend": 0.027634, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.285481, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165042, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.480813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.002541, "excess_performance": -0.128166, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.027634, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00813, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165042, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014246, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.074808, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022271, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002541, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.507229, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 108213, "relative_activity": 0.701548, "balance": 1.507229, "dry_up": 0.789291, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0264, "annualized_volatility": 0.160058, "from_high_reference": -0.031631, "from_low_reference": 0.102658 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 64.94528, "fair_value_reference": 57.285481, "structural_low": 61.34, "invalidation": 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"activity_lines": [ 65.554667, 64.595282, 64.277395, 64.543762 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.67, "volume": 121801, "typical_volume": 159841.85, "trend": 64.831753, "fair_value": 57.062267, "relative_strength": -6.68819, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.915324, "energy": 30.227294, "activity_lines": [ 65.359667, 64.751349, 64.32764, 64.535821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 64.97, "volume": 137768, "typical_volume": 158050.1, "trend": 64.877087, "fair_value": 57.166682, "relative_strength": -7.028645, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.373145, "energy": 18.385479, "activity_lines": [ 65.187333, 64.90558, 64.407077, 64.54474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.74, "volume": 108213, "typical_volume": 154248.95, "trend": 64.94528, "fair_value": 57.285481, "relative_strength": -7.480813, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.017666, "energy": 25.919154, "activity_lines": [ 65.647, 65.337447, 64.648275, 64.664928 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }