{ "ticker": { "uuid": "90fd1590-5b9a-4431-b25c-e50ffa7a78fe", "symbol": "QQD", "name": "BetaPro NASDAQ-100 -2x Daily Bear ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.62, "architecture_energy": 62.665, "architecture_maturity": 91.149, "architecture_confidence": 74.827, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 50.81, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 28.78, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.439333, 24.244364, 20.087571, 16.725634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 22.83, "trend_reference": 12.863333, "distance_from_trend": 0.774812, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.193718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.872276, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 100.897669, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.382222, "excess_performance": 2.261801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.774812, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.827438, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.872276, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.466232, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.008977, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 1.41441, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.382222, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.984137, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1337000, "relative_activity": 0.489582, "balance": 0.984137, "dry_up": 0.645236, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.136191, "annualized_volatility": 2.212779, "from_high_reference": -0.173425, "from_low_reference": 3.796218 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.863333, "fair_value_reference": 12.193718, "structural_low": 4.76, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008717, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.029815, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.229709, "worst_return": -0.263868, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042061, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108326, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 2.452774, "worst_return": -0.332787, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.323081, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.409913, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.037419, "worst_return": -0.404918, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"up", "direction": 67.144891, "energy": 68.120146, "activity_lines": [ 23.466, 21.508727, 15.872048, 13.262968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.030001, "volume": 1504300, "typical_volume": 3380765.0, "trend": 11.044, "fair_value": 12.081667, "relative_strength": 145.695724, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.484935, "energy": 70.909325, "activity_lines": [ 23.988667, 22.794728, 17.08081, 14.204925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.809999, "volume": 1375800, "typical_volume": 3125080.0, "trend": 11.689333, "fair_value": 12.132436, "relative_strength": 145.320576, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.43039, "energy": 70.022479, "activity_lines": [ 24.676, 23.856727, 18.277048, 15.15757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.48, "volume": 2831200, "typical_volume": 2954330.0, "trend": 12.315667, "fair_value": 12.173654, "relative_strength": 136.724627, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.906828, "energy": 66.933426, "activity_lines": [ 25.028667, 24.479273, 19.352191, 16.04729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.83, "volume": 1337000, "typical_volume": 2730900.0, "trend": 12.863333, "fair_value": 12.193718, "relative_strength": 100.897669, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.619755, "energy": 62.664937, "activity_lines": [ 24.439333, 24.244364, 20.087571, 16.725634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }