{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9101be27-f330-4fef-ab9f-e7a2e67d5ffd", "symbol": "XMME", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.547, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.658, "architecture_energy": 23.772, "architecture_maturity": 65.363, "architecture_confidence": 88.165, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.57, "rotation_up": 18.34, "upward_expansion": 52.34, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 35.2, "downward_expansion": 18.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 78.334267, 79.5816, 79.300857, 77.431157 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 79.094002, "trend_reference": 75.003133, "distance_from_trend": 0.054543, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.665373, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.371603, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.695536, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.130496, "excess_performance": 0.065856, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054543, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.076841, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.371603, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08033, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.046955, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.185698, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.130496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.979161, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 450412, "relative_activity": 1.375155, "balance": 0.979161, "dry_up": 1.335718, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044465, "annualized_volatility": 0.222743, "from_high_reference": -0.072668, "from_low_reference": 0.369356 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 75.003133, "fair_value_reference": 57.665373, "structural_low": 65.25, "invalidation": "A 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037404, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018315, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.101736, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067047, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.092327, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", 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"typical_volume": 330032.2, "trend": 74.225134, "fair_value": 57.25968, "relative_strength": 9.336958, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.081662, "energy": 22.664062, "activity_lines": [ 79.3076, 80.434182, 79.00921, 76.934727 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.445999, "volume": 418189, "typical_volume": 325434.45, "trend": 74.6202, "fair_value": 57.453526, "relative_strength": 5.713216, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.526363, "energy": 23.645172, "activity_lines": [ 78.388133, 79.844509, 79.097114, 77.142525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 79.094002, "volume": 450412, "typical_volume": 327535.4, "trend": 75.003133, "fair_value": 57.665373, "relative_strength": 4.695536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.658375, "energy": 23.771773, "activity_lines": [ 78.334267, 79.5816, 79.300857, 77.431157 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }