{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9102129c-88c6-45ab-8a35-683f38ceb72e", "symbol": "2380", "name": "Rabigh Refining and Petrochemical Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.664, "architecture_energy": 66.403, "architecture_maturity": 22.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.653, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.16, "rotation_up": 71.57, "upward_expansion": 85.01, "deceleration": 49.99, "rotation_down": 12.45, "downward_expansion": 11.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.193334, 14.371273, 14.169714, 13.129097 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.120001, "trend_reference": 11.483, "distance_from_trend": 0.403814, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.828782, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.825847, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 66.097987, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.312769, "excess_performance": 1.344599, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.403814, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.232522, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.825847, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187978, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.66098, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087898, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.312769, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.170476, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59391835, "relative_activity": 1.630187, "balance": 1.170476, "dry_up": 1.701206, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097585, "annualized_volatility": 0.569802, "from_high_reference": -0.091319, "from_low_reference": 1.57508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.483, "fair_value_reference": 8.828782, "structural_low": 6.68, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.019811, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.027652, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.327014, "worst_return": -0.215504, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.057391, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022221, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.275829, "worst_return": -0.262983, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.112727, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.135185, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.209945, "worst_return": -0.3982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.533735, "energy": 30.246429, "activity_lines": [ 12.88, 13.620364, 13.210429, 11.994645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.56, "volume": 43154445, "typical_volume": 30346057.45, "trend": 10.621667, "fair_value": 8.739487, "relative_strength": 59.45951, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.865192, "energy": 25.689784, "activity_lines": [ 13.426667, 13.693818, 13.444333, 12.265118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.08, "volume": 63353505, "typical_volume": 32410275.9, "trend": 10.895667, "fair_value": 8.765, "relative_strength": 61.39872, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.916815, "energy": 43.63847, "activity_lines": [ 14.105333, 13.851636, 13.693095, 12.552753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.87, "volume": 82017123, "typical_volume": 33920924.55, "trend": 11.161, "fair_value": 8.792885, "relative_strength": 59.670101, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.27424, "energy": 49.688679, "activity_lines": [ 14.535333, 13.987818, 13.887143, 12.809161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.120001, "volume": 59391835, "typical_volume": 36432529.65, "trend": 11.483, "fair_value": 8.828782, "relative_strength": 66.097987, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.663701, "energy": 66.402847, "activity_lines": [ 15.193334, 14.371273, 14.169714, 13.129097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }