{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "91094ef6-380e-4a22-82c3-bd92085cf99b",
    "symbol": "AVG",
    "name": "Australian Vintage Ltd",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -34.709,
    "architecture_energy": 19.687,
    "architecture_maturity": 100.0,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.596,
    "architecture_tenure": "Extended",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 53.13,
        "rotation_up": 26.63,
        "upward_expansion": 18.5,
        "deceleration": 46.56,
        "rotation_down": 25.73,
        "downward_expansion": 54.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        0.066133,
        0.065009,
        0.06604,
        0.070047
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 0.066,
    "trend_reference": 0.076617,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.138569,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 0.188928,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.650661,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -33.093783,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.290323,
    "excess_performance": -0.354028,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.138569,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.159751,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.650661,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.040651,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.330938,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01622,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.290323,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.573105,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 102497,
      "relative_activity": 0.089358,
      "balance": 0.573105,
      "dry_up": 0.628864,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.118881,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.610972,
      "from_high_reference": -0.552542,
      "from_low_reference": 0.32
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 0.076617,
      "fair_value_reference": 0.188928,
      "structural_low": 0.05,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 45,
        "median_return": -0.030769,
        "positive_rate": 0.355556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025059,
        "regime_survival": 0.866667,
        "best_return": 0.3125,
        "worst_return": -0.424242,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 15,
        "median_return": -0.078015,
        "positive_rate": 0.133333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.111008,
        "regime_survival": 0.733333,
        "best_return": 0.0625,
        "worst_return": -0.515152,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.073504,
        "positive_rate": 0.125,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": -0.125361,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.181818,
        "worst_return": -0.586667,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.309132,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.444208,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": -0.097727,
        "worst_return": -0.586667,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.052632,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-04-12",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.1625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-04-19",
        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.22619,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.621212,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.28125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-28",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.16,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.109091,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-08-15",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.277174,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.08,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.115385,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-12-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.16,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-12-26",
        "end": "2026-01-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.045455,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-09",
        "end": "2026-01-23",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.02,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-01-30",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.3125,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "typical_volume": 443517.85,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 1318843.75,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 0.068,
        "volume": 530381,
        "typical_volume": 1232790.65,
        "trend": 0.07775,
        "fair_value": 0.191101,
        "relative_strength": -29.374484,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -38.312253,
        "energy": 23.548262,
        "activity_lines": [
          0.065667,
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          0.066383,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 0.066,
        "volume": 102497,
        "typical_volume": 1147040.35,
        "trend": 0.076617,
        "fair_value": 0.188928,
        "relative_strength": -33.093783,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -34.709426,
        "energy": 19.687424,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}