{ "ticker": { "uuid": "910d3724-54ca-4651-85eb-c0864b8e4193", "symbol": "KDR", "name": "Karelian Diamond Resources Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 52.007, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.65, "architecture_energy": 35.83, "architecture_maturity": 29.587, "architecture_confidence": 62.729, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.46, "rotation_up": 16.35, "upward_expansion": 26.22, "deceleration": 52.43, "rotation_down": 60.29, "downward_expansion": 46.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.00675, 0.007014, 0.00752, 0.007318 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.00675, "trend_reference": 0.006858, "distance_from_trend": -0.015796, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.014565, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.536562, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.320508, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.227273, "excess_performance": 0.176037, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015796, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094415, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.536562, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033205, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.387957, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.227273, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.183599, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1298837, "relative_activity": 0.399839, "balance": 1.183599, "dry_up": 0.245134, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.168091, "annualized_volatility": 1.122876, "from_high_reference": -0.375, "from_low_reference": 0.928571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.006858, "fair_value_reference": 0.014565, "structural_low": 0.0035, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.077778, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.102139, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.044776, "worst_return": -0.343137, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.307734, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.327435, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.203704, "worst_return": -0.411765, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.208606, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.270624, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092593, "worst_return": -0.509804, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.388889, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.52021, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.388889, "worst_return": -0.388889, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2023-11-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078431, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.255319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.101695, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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{ "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.04, "volume": 594862, "typical_volume": 1732433.5, "trend": 0.025567, "fair_value": 0.033944, "relative_strength": 72.848007, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 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"fair_value": 0.015017, "relative_strength": -2.235179, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.123456, "energy": 16.347105, "activity_lines": [ 0.0069, 0.007336, 0.007695, 0.007322 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.00675, "volume": 1283195, "typical_volume": 3593050.9, "trend": 0.0068, "fair_value": 0.014794, "relative_strength": -3.144582, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.42179, "energy": 23.940659, "activity_lines": [ 0.0068, 0.007155, 0.007614, 0.007322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.00675, "volume": 1298837, "typical_volume": 3248400.85, "trend": 0.006858, "fair_value": 0.014565, "relative_strength": -3.320508, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.650025, "energy": 35.82952, "activity_lines": [ 0.00675, 0.007014, 0.00752, 0.007318 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }